Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). SMU wins about 83% of the time at a number like ours.
VT
Games
4
Plays per game
79.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
12.3 (28th, offence 27th, defence 30th)
Returning production
37% (pass 0%, rush 31%, receiving 54%)
SMU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.5
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
13.0 (26th, offence 16th, defence 41st)
Returning production
57% (pass 97%, rush 1%, receiving 37%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
VT
SMU
pass rate, all downs
51%50th
53%33rd
pass rate, standard downs
43%54th
43%58th
pass rate, 1st down
42%75th
47%42nd
no-huddle share
40%90th
48%84th
pass rate, passing downs
70%36th
80%4th
pass rate, red zone
42%53rd
41%54th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.1120th
26.4116th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
VT offence
VT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.241
316
42 of 138
success rate
0.484
316
36 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.205
316
82 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.149
316
60 of 138
rush: success rate
0.503
316
23 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.971
316
69 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.357
316
46 of 138
pass: success rate
0.471
316
51 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.475
316
91 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.504
316
57 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.427
316
9 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.994
316
88 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.200
316
103 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
316
73 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.567
316
35 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.111
316
25 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.089
316
76 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.022
316
5 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
66.400
316
123 of 138
SMU offence
SMU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.251
282
40 of 138
success rate
0.518
282
9 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.250
282
59 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.027
282
121 of 138
rush: success rate
0.470
282
49 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.646
282
134 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.603
282
7 of 138
pass: success rate
0.573
282
7 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.710
282
33 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.558
282
21 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.405
282
15 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.039
282
83 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.164
282
62 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.652
282
109 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.903
282
71 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.121
282
37 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.078
282
47 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.043
282
46 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.600
282
112 of 138
VT defence
VT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.030
236
38 of 138
success rate
0.331
236
18 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.309
236
99 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.147
236
17 of 138
rush: success rate
0.269
236
6 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.306
236
135 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.142
236
73 of 138
pass: success rate
0.391
236
70 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.340
236
19 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.413
236
39 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.204
236
12 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
0.986
236
1 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.403
236
138 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
236
18 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.522
236
19 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.267
236
138 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.220
236
138 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.047
236
35 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.100
236
71 of 138
SMU defence
SMU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.023
255
64 of 138
success rate
0.361
255
41 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.317
255
103 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.030
255
71 of 138
rush: success rate
0.426
255
89 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.065
255
109 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.038
255
40 of 138
pass: success rate
0.299
255
7 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.711
255
112 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.434
255
57 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.200
255
11 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.702
255
56 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.213
255
92 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.389
255
2 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.950
255
109 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.204
255
122 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.141
255
124 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.063
255
76 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.600
255
102 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs