Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MIA wins about 89% of the time at a number like ours.
MIA
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
25.7 (5th, offence 8th, defence 8th)
Returning production
37% (pass 6%, rush 91%, receiving 45%)
UNC
Games
3
Plays per game
60.7
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
3.0 (60th, offence 88th, defence 34th)
Returning production
28% (pass 10%, rush 54%, receiving 33%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MIA
UNC
pass rate, all downs
49%64th
51%46th
pass rate, standard downs
42%65th
46%36th
pass rate, 1st down
43%66th
48%35th
no-huddle share
31%100th
16%115th
pass rate, passing downs
70%37th
62%79th
pass rate, red zone
40%59th
44%41st
seconds per play (own drives)
29.949th
30.338th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MIA offence
MIA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.442
280
2 of 138
success rate
0.571
280
3 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.278
280
50 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.123
280
72 of 138
rush: success rate
0.511
280
21 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.982
280
63 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.839
280
1 of 138
pass: success rate
0.654
280
1 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.489
280
88 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.630
280
2 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.375
280
29 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.887
280
4 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.121
280
15 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.812
280
31 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.057
280
14 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.068
280
4 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.046
280
9 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.021
280
3 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.000
280
79 of 138
UNC offence
UNC offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.118
182
86 of 138
success rate
0.484
182
35 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.038
182
134 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.124
182
71 of 138
rush: success rate
0.534
182
10 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.706
182
130 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.148
182
94 of 138
pass: success rate
0.422
182
84 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.452
182
99 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.532
182
38 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.375
182
30 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.872
182
5 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.125
182
20 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
182
51 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.000
182
65 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
182
51 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.082
182
56 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.049
182
62 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.000
182
80 of 138
MIA defence
MIA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.049
228
31 of 138
success rate
0.325
228
14 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.149
228
42 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.158
228
14 of 138
rush: success rate
0.257
228
1 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.719
228
16 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.024
228
35 of 138
pass: success rate
0.362
228
35 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.303
228
14 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.379
228
17 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.229
228
28 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.153
228
7 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.270
228
130 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
228
16 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.308
228
15 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.162
228
71 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.096
228
64 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.066
228
87 of 138
opponent average starting field position
76.000
228
129 of 138
UNC defence
UNC defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.019
206
41 of 138
success rate
0.393
206
69 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.024
206
8 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.058
206
80 of 138
rush: success rate
0.429
206
90 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.827
206
32 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.027
206
37 of 138
pass: success rate
0.376
206
49 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.242
206
6 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.471
206
87 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.227
206
25 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.940
206
88 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.122
206
7 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.875
206
129 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.688
206
29 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.141
206
40 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.097
206
65 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.044
206
28 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.300
206
38 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs