Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). PITT wins about 86% of the time at a number like ours.
GT
Games
4
Plays per game
65.0
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
-0.1 (69th, offence 66th, defence 76th)
Returning production
13% (pass 0%, rush 35%, receiving 11%)
PITT
Games
4
Plays per game
73.0
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
14.7 (20th, offence 36th, defence 15th)
Returning production
40% (pass 59%, rush 67%, receiving 24%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
GT
PITT
pass rate, all downs
53%34th
53%31st
pass rate, standard downs
44%47th
47%26th
pass rate, 1st down
42%78th
47%36th
no-huddle share
33%98th
23%107th
pass rate, passing downs
71%33rd
68%44th
pass rate, red zone
48%26th
57%8th
seconds per play (own drives)
28.875th
26.5110th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
GT offence
GT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.141
260
76 of 138
success rate
0.442
260
68 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.221
260
71 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.112
260
73 of 138
rush: success rate
0.452
260
67 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.885
260
87 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.191
260
84 of 138
pass: success rate
0.443
260
68 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.513
260
78 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
260
60 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
260
71 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.074
260
76 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.202
260
106 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
260
93 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.393
260
101 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.162
260
95 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.104
260
105 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.058
260
77 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.600
260
66 of 138
PITT offence
PITT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.294
292
25 of 138
success rate
0.497
292
26 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.249
292
60 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.078
292
86 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
292
62 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.809
292
111 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.507
292
16 of 138
pass: success rate
0.530
292
14 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.595
292
58 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.528
292
40 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.412
292
13 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.309
292
39 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.182
292
88 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.632
292
115 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.233
292
55 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.096
292
13 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.058
292
20 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
292
27 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.400
292
73 of 138
GT defence
GT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.155
281
105 of 138
success rate
0.413
281
85 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.267
281
87 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.082
281
91 of 138
rush: success rate
0.447
281
107 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.865
281
45 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.343
281
121 of 138
pass: success rate
0.366
281
41 of 138
pass: explosiveness
2.089
281
138 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.447
281
68 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.341
281
115 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.906
281
80 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.171
281
38 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.684
281
54 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.654
281
91 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.160
281
68 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.121
281
110 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.039
281
15 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.400
281
40 of 138
PITT defence
PITT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.107
240
18 of 138
success rate
0.287
240
2 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.379
240
119 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.178
240
12 of 138
rush: success rate
0.278
240
7 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.995
240
92 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.012
240
28 of 138
pass: success rate
0.306
240
11 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.620
240
93 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.345
240
6 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.200
240
10 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
1.777
240
2 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.320
240
137 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.538
240
12 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.688
240
3 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
240
92 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.117
240
104 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.063
240
75 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
240
124 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs