Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). FSU wins about 59% of the time at a number like ours.
CLEM
Games
4
Plays per game
65.0
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
4.9 (54th, offence 91st, defence 24th)
Returning production
41% (pass 14%, rush -38%, receiving 71%)
FSU
Games
4
Plays per game
62.2
Drives per game
10.8
SP+
5.7 (53rd, offence 35th, defence 74th)
Returning production
40% (pass 13%, rush 28%, receiving 65%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
CLEM
FSU
pass rate, all downs
47%73rd
44%102nd
pass rate, standard downs
43%56th
35%113th
pass rate, 1st down
45%51st
35%112th
no-huddle share
96%13th
69%61st
pass rate, passing downs
55%111th
64%60th
pass rate, red zone
33%91st
35%83rd
seconds per play (own drives)
27.2100th
29.069th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
CLEM offence
CLEM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.027
260
125 of 138
success rate
0.342
260
132 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.175
260
94 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.093
260
82 of 138
rush: success rate
0.368
260
120 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.020
260
49 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.001
260
124 of 138
pass: success rate
0.328
260
131 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.400
260
114 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.405
260
129 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.228
260
125 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.764
260
114 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.211
260
114 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
260
35 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.095
260
117 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.188
260
127 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.146
260
136 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
260
39 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.400
260
71 of 138
FSU offence
FSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.247
249
41 of 138
success rate
0.434
249
80 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.526
249
2 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.224
249
34 of 138
rush: success rate
0.442
249
79 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.131
249
16 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.367
249
42 of 138
pass: success rate
0.423
249
83 of 138
pass: explosiveness
2.061
249
2 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.451
249
107 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.392
249
21 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.196
249
60 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.152
249
50 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.562
249
126 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.885
249
18 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.145
249
75 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.080
249
52 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
249
93 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.300
249
55 of 138
CLEM defence
CLEM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.017
288
58 of 138
success rate
0.410
288
83 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.188
288
54 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.203
288
127 of 138
rush: success rate
0.492
288
132 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.887
288
59 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.055
288
19 of 138
pass: success rate
0.344
288
24 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.563
288
73 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.430
288
55 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.368
288
128 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.459
288
135 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.129
288
12 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
288
74 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.346
288
16 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.160
288
67 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.073
288
22 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.087
288
125 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.500
288
111 of 138
FSU defence
FSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.219
276
125 of 138
success rate
0.435
276
102 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.350
276
111 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.134
276
111 of 138
rush: success rate
0.414
276
79 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.959
276
83 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.325
276
116 of 138
pass: success rate
0.458
276
111 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.654
276
102 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.497
276
109 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.316
276
103 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.010
276
95 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.180
276
47 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.929
276
135 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.524
276
80 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.156
276
58 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.101
276
75 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.054
276
49 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.300
276
95 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs