Betting
Spread
CLEM favouredMarket CLEM −1.5Ours FSU −4
FSU favouredgap 5.5 toward FSU
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| CLEM away | -1.5 | 26.5 | -112 | 50.4% | — |
| FSU home | +1.5 | 25.0 | -108 | 49.6% | — |
| Total | 51.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| CLEM away | +4.0 | 23.8 | 39.5% | +5.5 |
| FSU home | -4.0 | 27.7 | 60.5% | -5.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
Nothing to show for this game.
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | CLEM | FSU |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -1.676th | +0.162nd |
| Defence (cards) | +2.615th | +1.726th |
| Card team rating | +1.054th | +1.848th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +4.954th | +5.753rd |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.253rd | +0.438th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +0.354th | +0.547th |
| Card line | FSU -4.0 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 41% | 40% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Tait Reynolds CLEM74 overall · Freshman
Points added per play0.002
Completion63.9%
TD–INT1-2
Pass attempts, median game24
Pass yards, median game143
Rush yards, median game27
Games this season4
Team throws per game26.5
Ashton Daniels FSU75 ▼2 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.328
Completion59.8%
TD–INT6-5
Pass attempts, median game25
Pass yards, median game213
Rush yards, median game32
Games this season4
Team throws per game24.8
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| CLEM away | 2-2 | 50% | -5.0 | 2-2 | -7.0 |
| FSU home | 1-2-1 | 33% | -6.9 | 1-3 | +2.5 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| CLEM | favourite | won 4 straight — next game covered 50.4% of the time (16696 cases) |
| CLEM | day | covered 4 straight — next game covered 49.4% of the time (6312 cases) |
| CLEM | day | won 4 straight — next game covered 50.4% of the time (16696 cases) |
| CLEM | division | covered 4 straight — next game covered 49.4% of the time (6312 cases) |
| CLEM | division | won 4 straight — next game covered 50.4% of the time (16696 cases) |
| CLEM | away division | covered 4 straight — next game covered 49.4% of the time (6312 cases) |
| CLEM | away division | won 4 straight — next game covered 50.4% of the time (16696 cases) |
| FSU | home | gone under 4 straight — next game went over 51.1% of the time (6939 cases) |
| FSU | division | gone under 6 straight — next game went over 52.6% of the time (1586 cases) |
| FSU | underdog | lost 4 straight — next game covered 50.6% of the time (14163 cases) |
| FSU | home underdog | gone under 6 straight — next game went over 52.6% of the time (1586 cases) |
Streak picker (total): bets the over — FSU has gone under 6 straight as division.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Doak Campbell Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| CLEM | C. Vizzina QB | questionable Elbow | Wed, Sep 30 | Vizzina is dealing with an elbow injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Hurricanes on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| CLEM | D. Eziomume RB | out Leg | Mon, Sep 28 | Eziomume is liad up with a leg injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season. |
| CLEM | C. Gipson CB | out Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 25 | Gipson is dealing with an Undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against California on Friday, September 25th. |
| CLEM | J. Haynes RB | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Haynes is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to play against the California on Friday. |
| CLEM | K. McGriff WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 17 | McGriff is battling with an undisclsoed injury, and it is not anticipated that he will suit up against North Carolina on Saturday. |
| CLEM | C. Turner WR | out Personal | Fri, Aug 21 | Turner is dealing with some personal reasons, and he is without a definitive timetable for return. |
| CLEM | P. Streko RB | out Undisclosed | Tue, Aug 11 | Streko has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season. |
| FSU | D. Carter WR | out Back | Thu, Oct 1 | Carter is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to play against the Cavaliers on Saturday. |
| FSU | S. Singleton Jr. RB | out Lower Body | Mon, Sep 21 | Singleton is managing a lower body injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time. |
| FSU | G. Markey RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Markey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Central Arkansas on Saturday, September 26th. |
| FSU | T. Gelsey WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Gelsey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Central Arkansas on Saturday, September 26th. |