Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UNC wins about 57% of the time at a number like ours.
SYR
Games
3
Plays per game
79.3
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-1.2 (74th, offence 97th, defence 51st)
Returning production
35% (pass 83%, rush -19%, receiving 20%)
UNC
Games
3
Plays per game
60.7
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
3.0 (60th, offence 88th, defence 34th)
Returning production
28% (pass 10%, rush 54%, receiving 33%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
SYR
UNC
pass rate, all downs
54%27th
51%46th
pass rate, standard downs
44%53rd
46%36th
pass rate, 1st down
49%30th
48%35th
no-huddle share
93%17th
16%115th
pass rate, passing downs
74%20th
62%79th
pass rate, red zone
47%27th
44%41st
seconds per play (own drives)
26.6108th
30.338th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
SYR offence
SYR offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.038
238
113 of 138
success rate
0.399
238
109 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.330
238
27 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.143
238
64 of 138
rush: success rate
0.450
238
69 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.996
238
57 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.043
238
115 of 138
pass: success rate
0.372
238
115 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.712
238
32 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.443
238
113 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
238
72 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.851
238
102 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.220
238
121 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
238
40 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.538
238
92 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.126
238
43 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.084
238
60 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
238
40 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.200
238
119 of 138
UNC offence
UNC offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.118
182
86 of 138
success rate
0.484
182
35 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.038
182
134 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.124
182
71 of 138
rush: success rate
0.534
182
10 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.706
182
130 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.148
182
94 of 138
pass: success rate
0.422
182
84 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.452
182
99 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.532
182
38 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.375
182
30 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.872
182
5 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.125
182
20 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
182
51 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.000
182
65 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
182
51 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.082
182
56 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.049
182
62 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.000
182
80 of 138
SYR defence
SYR defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.126
183
13 of 138
success rate
0.361
183
42 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.087
183
21 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.026
183
70 of 138
rush: success rate
0.433
183
96 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.926
183
75 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.251
183
1 of 138
pass: success rate
0.289
183
5 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.377
183
24 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.452
183
74 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.206
183
13 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.629
183
49 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.233
183
111 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
183
87 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.750
183
31 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.186
183
107 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.137
183
121 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.049
183
41 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.900
183
91 of 138
UNC defence
UNC defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.019
206
41 of 138
success rate
0.393
206
69 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.024
206
8 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.058
206
80 of 138
rush: success rate
0.429
206
90 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.827
206
32 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.027
206
37 of 138
pass: success rate
0.376
206
49 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.242
206
6 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.471
206
87 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.227
206
25 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.940
206
88 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.122
206
7 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.875
206
129 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.688
206
29 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.141
206
40 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.097
206
65 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.044
206
28 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.300
206
38 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs