Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). NCSU wins about 69% of the time at a number like ours.
NCSU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.2
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
3.4 (58th, offence 37th, defence 84th)
Returning production
60% (pass 93%, rush 101%, receiving 26%)
STAN
Games
4
Plays per game
68.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
-8.4 (102nd, offence 98th, defence 98th)
Returning production
21% (pass -1%, rush 135%, receiving 31%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
NCSU
STAN
pass rate, all downs
47%80th
57%12th
pass rate, standard downs
37%110th
48%24th
pass rate, 1st down
41%86th
45%53rd
no-huddle share
44%87th
61%70th
pass rate, passing downs
71%32nd
77%13th
pass rate, red zone
39%66th
54%10th
seconds per play (own drives)
28.971st
26.4112th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
NCSU offence
NCSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.221
281
54 of 138
success rate
0.488
281
33 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.209
281
77 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.215
281
36 of 138
rush: success rate
0.493
281
30 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.037
281
41 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.257
281
67 of 138
pass: success rate
0.484
281
39 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.406
281
110 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.548
281
30 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.341
281
51 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.295
281
41 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.149
281
47 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.840
281
21 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.679
281
25 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
281
88 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.093
281
82 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
281
95 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.900
281
64 of 138
STAN offence
STAN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.130
272
80 of 138
success rate
0.393
272
112 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.249
272
61 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.002
272
114 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
272
105 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.796
272
113 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.230
272
74 of 138
pass: success rate
0.386
272
105 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.602
272
56 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.464
272
96 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.253
272
114 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.760
272
115 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.212
272
117 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.769
272
56 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.261
272
109 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.125
272
40 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.074
272
43 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.051
272
63 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.600
272
13 of 138
NCSU defence
NCSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.120
243
93 of 138
success rate
0.399
243
74 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.250
243
82 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.067
243
84 of 138
rush: success rate
0.446
243
106 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.967
243
86 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.270
243
101 of 138
pass: success rate
0.366
243
42 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.643
243
99 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.456
243
77 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.264
243
54 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.821
243
66 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.190
243
61 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
243
90 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.591
243
84 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.152
243
54 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.070
243
17 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.082
243
118 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.500
243
58 of 138
STAN defence
STAN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.281
288
133 of 138
success rate
0.458
288
122 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.377
288
118 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.158
288
119 of 138
rush: success rate
0.458
288
112 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.128
288
124 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.456
288
132 of 138
pass: success rate
0.466
288
116 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.592
288
86 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.495
288
107 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.383
288
132 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.222
288
116 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.145
288
19 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.812
288
111 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.000
288
132 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.128
288
20 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.080
288
36 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.049
288
40 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
288
68 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs