Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). VT wins about 77% of the time at a number like ours.
GT
Games
4
Plays per game
65.0
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
-0.1 (69th, offence 66th, defence 76th)
Returning production
13% (pass 0%, rush 35%, receiving 11%)
VT
Games
4
Plays per game
79.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
12.3 (28th, offence 27th, defence 30th)
Returning production
37% (pass 0%, rush 31%, receiving 54%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
GT
VT
pass rate, all downs
53%34th
51%50th
pass rate, standard downs
44%47th
43%54th
pass rate, 1st down
42%78th
42%75th
no-huddle share
33%98th
40%90th
pass rate, passing downs
71%33rd
70%36th
pass rate, red zone
48%26th
42%53rd
seconds per play (own drives)
28.875th
26.1120th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
GT offence
GT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.141
260
76 of 138
success rate
0.442
260
68 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.221
260
71 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.112
260
73 of 138
rush: success rate
0.452
260
67 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.885
260
87 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.191
260
84 of 138
pass: success rate
0.443
260
68 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.513
260
78 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
260
60 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
260
71 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.074
260
76 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.202
260
106 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
260
93 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.393
260
101 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.162
260
95 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.104
260
105 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.058
260
77 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.600
260
66 of 138
VT offence
VT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.241
316
42 of 138
success rate
0.484
316
36 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.205
316
82 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.149
316
60 of 138
rush: success rate
0.503
316
23 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.971
316
69 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.357
316
46 of 138
pass: success rate
0.471
316
51 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.475
316
91 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.504
316
57 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.427
316
9 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.994
316
88 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.200
316
103 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
316
73 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.567
316
35 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.111
316
25 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.089
316
76 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.022
316
5 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
66.400
316
123 of 138
GT defence
GT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.155
281
105 of 138
success rate
0.413
281
85 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.267
281
87 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.082
281
91 of 138
rush: success rate
0.447
281
107 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.865
281
45 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.343
281
121 of 138
pass: success rate
0.366
281
41 of 138
pass: explosiveness
2.089
281
138 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.447
281
68 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.341
281
115 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.906
281
80 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.171
281
38 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.684
281
54 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.654
281
91 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.160
281
68 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.121
281
110 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.039
281
15 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.400
281
40 of 138
VT defence
VT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.030
236
38 of 138
success rate
0.331
236
18 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.309
236
99 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.147
236
17 of 138
rush: success rate
0.269
236
6 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.306
236
135 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.142
236
73 of 138
pass: success rate
0.391
236
70 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.340
236
19 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.413
236
39 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.204
236
12 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
0.986
236
1 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.403
236
138 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
236
18 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.522
236
19 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.267
236
138 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.220
236
138 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.047
236
35 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.100
236
71 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs