Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UVA wins about 77% of the time at a number like ours.
SYR
Games
3
Plays per game
79.3
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-1.2 (74th, offence 97th, defence 51st)
Returning production
35% (pass 83%, rush -19%, receiving 20%)
UVA
Games
4
Plays per game
73.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
14.4 (21st, offence 29th, defence 20th)
Returning production
10% (pass 1%, rush 21%, receiving 9%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
SYR
UVA
pass rate, all downs
54%27th
43%110th
pass rate, standard downs
44%53rd
37%105th
pass rate, 1st down
49%30th
42%82nd
no-huddle share
93%17th
8%127th
pass rate, passing downs
74%20th
59%91st
pass rate, red zone
47%27th
37%77th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.6108th
30.630th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
SYR offence
SYR offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.038
238
113 of 138
success rate
0.399
238
109 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.330
238
27 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.143
238
64 of 138
rush: success rate
0.450
238
69 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.996
238
57 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.043
238
115 of 138
pass: success rate
0.372
238
115 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.712
238
32 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.443
238
113 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
238
72 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.851
238
102 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.220
238
121 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
238
40 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.538
238
92 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.126
238
43 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.084
238
60 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
238
40 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.200
238
119 of 138
UVA offence
UVA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.284
294
29 of 138
success rate
0.476
294
44 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.215
294
75 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.150
294
59 of 138
rush: success rate
0.467
294
54 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.908
294
84 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.536
294
14 of 138
pass: success rate
0.521
294
20 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.584
294
61 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.550
294
27 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.257
294
111 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.370
294
31 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.133
294
32 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.870
294
10 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.655
294
27 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.105
294
19 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.078
294
48 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.027
294
10 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.400
294
117 of 138
SYR defence
SYR defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.126
183
13 of 138
success rate
0.361
183
42 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.087
183
21 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.026
183
70 of 138
rush: success rate
0.433
183
96 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.926
183
75 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.251
183
1 of 138
pass: success rate
0.289
183
5 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.377
183
24 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.452
183
74 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.206
183
13 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.629
183
49 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.233
183
111 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
183
87 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.750
183
31 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.186
183
107 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.137
183
121 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.049
183
41 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.900
183
91 of 138
UVA defence
UVA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.144
243
9 of 138
success rate
0.333
243
19 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.955
243
4 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.043
243
41 of 138
rush: success rate
0.375
243
51 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.651
243
10 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.145
243
5 of 138
pass: success rate
0.303
243
10 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.397
243
32 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.399
243
29 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.222
243
21 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.891
243
74 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.188
243
60 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.692
243
56 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.143
243
56 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.198
243
116 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.099
243
69 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.099
243
133 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.200
243
94 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs