Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ND wins about 99% of the time at a number like ours.
STAN
Games
4
Plays per game
68.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
-8.4 (102nd, offence 98th, defence 98th)
Returning production
21% (pass -1%, rush 135%, receiving 31%)
ND
Games
4
Plays per game
64.5
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
28.1 (3rd, offence 4th, defence 2nd)
Returning production
51% (pass 91%, rush 12%, receiving 38%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
STAN
ND
pass rate, all downs
57%12th
45%91st
pass rate, standard downs
48%24th
42%66th
pass rate, 1st down
45%53rd
42%73rd
no-huddle share
61%70th
61%71st
pass rate, passing downs
77%13th
58%98th
pass rate, red zone
54%10th
36%79th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.4112th
31.220th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
STAN offence
STAN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.130
272
80 of 138
success rate
0.393
272
112 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.249
272
61 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.002
272
114 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
272
105 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.796
272
113 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.230
272
74 of 138
pass: success rate
0.386
272
105 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.602
272
56 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.464
272
96 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.253
272
114 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.760
272
115 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.212
272
117 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.769
272
56 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.261
272
109 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.125
272
40 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.074
272
43 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.051
272
63 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.600
272
13 of 138
ND offence
ND offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.333
258
13 of 138
success rate
0.516
258
13 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.116
258
122 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.142
258
65 of 138
rush: success rate
0.482
258
38 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.795
258
114 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.563
258
11 of 138
pass: success rate
0.558
258
11 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.459
258
96 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.599
258
6 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.214
258
132 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.943
258
93 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.153
258
53 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
258
62 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.286
258
6 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.101
258
16 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.035
258
3 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.066
258
101 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.300
258
44 of 138
STAN defence
STAN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.281
288
133 of 138
success rate
0.458
288
122 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.377
288
118 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.158
288
119 of 138
rush: success rate
0.458
288
112 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.128
288
124 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.456
288
132 of 138
pass: success rate
0.466
288
116 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.592
288
86 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.495
288
107 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.383
288
132 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.222
288
116 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.145
288
19 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.812
288
111 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.000
288
132 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.128
288
20 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.080
288
36 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.049
288
40 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
288
68 of 138
ND defence
ND defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.119
225
15 of 138
success rate
0.342
225
24 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.138
225
37 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.229
225
8 of 138
rush: success rate
0.304
225
12 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.812
225
30 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.021
225
26 of 138
pass: success rate
0.374
225
48 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.378
225
25 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.390
225
22 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.253
225
44 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.321
225
16 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.223
225
103 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.733
225
77 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.625
225
2 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.240
225
135 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.169
225
134 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.071
225
99 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.300
225
76 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs