Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). PITT wins about 76% of the time at a number like ours.
UNC
Games
3
Plays per game
60.7
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
3.0 (60th, offence 88th, defence 34th)
Returning production
28% (pass 10%, rush 54%, receiving 33%)
PITT
Games
4
Plays per game
73.0
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
14.7 (20th, offence 36th, defence 15th)
Returning production
40% (pass 59%, rush 67%, receiving 24%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UNC
PITT
pass rate, all downs
51%46th
53%31st
pass rate, standard downs
46%36th
47%26th
pass rate, 1st down
48%35th
47%36th
pass rate, red zone
44%41st
57%8th
no-huddle share
16%115th
23%107th
pass rate, passing downs
62%79th
68%44th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.338th
26.5110th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UNC offence
UNC offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.118
182
86 of 138
success rate
0.484
182
35 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.038
182
134 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.124
182
71 of 138
rush: success rate
0.534
182
10 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.706
182
130 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.148
182
94 of 138
pass: success rate
0.422
182
84 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.452
182
99 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.532
182
38 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.375
182
30 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.872
182
5 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.125
182
20 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
182
51 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.000
182
65 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
182
51 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.082
182
56 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.049
182
62 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.000
182
80 of 138
PITT offence
PITT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.294
292
25 of 138
success rate
0.497
292
26 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.249
292
60 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.078
292
86 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
292
62 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.809
292
111 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.507
292
16 of 138
pass: success rate
0.530
292
14 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.595
292
58 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.528
292
40 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.412
292
13 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.309
292
39 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.182
292
88 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.632
292
115 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.233
292
55 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.096
292
13 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.058
292
20 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
292
27 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.400
292
73 of 138
UNC defence
UNC defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.019
206
41 of 138
success rate
0.393
206
69 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.024
206
8 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.058
206
80 of 138
rush: success rate
0.429
206
90 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.827
206
32 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.027
206
37 of 138
pass: success rate
0.376
206
49 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.242
206
6 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.471
206
87 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.227
206
25 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.940
206
88 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.122
206
7 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.875
206
129 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.688
206
29 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.141
206
40 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.097
206
65 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.044
206
28 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.300
206
38 of 138
PITT defence
PITT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.107
240
18 of 138
success rate
0.287
240
2 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.379
240
119 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.178
240
12 of 138
rush: success rate
0.278
240
7 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.995
240
92 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.012
240
28 of 138
pass: success rate
0.306
240
11 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.620
240
93 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.345
240
6 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.200
240
10 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
1.777
240
2 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.320
240
137 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.538
240
12 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.688
240
3 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
240
92 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.117
240
104 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.063
240
75 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
240
124 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs