Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UVA wins about 86% of the time at a number like ours.
DEL
Games
4
Plays per game
65.5
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
-10.7 (110th, offence 100th, defence 108th)
Returning production
85% (pass 96%, rush 88%, receiving 77%)
UVA
Games
4
Plays per game
73.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
14.4 (21st, offence 29th, defence 20th)
Returning production
10% (pass 1%, rush 21%, receiving 9%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
DEL
UVA
pass rate, all downs
56%19th
43%110th
pass rate, standard downs
48%21st
37%105th
pass rate, 1st down
49%28th
42%82nd
pass rate, red zone
44%42nd
37%77th
no-huddle share
72%59th
8%127th
pass rate, passing downs
72%30th
59%91st
seconds per play (own drives)
27.0101st
30.630th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
DEL offence
DEL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.036
262
114 of 138
success rate
0.389
262
116 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.267
262
53 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.046
262
97 of 138
rush: success rate
0.435
262
83 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.780
262
119 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.157
262
92 of 138
pass: success rate
0.369
262
116 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.735
262
29 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.479
262
84 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.226
262
128 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.717
262
118 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.209
262
112 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.647
262
110 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.600
262
89 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.214
262
136 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
262
113 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.103
262
137 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.400
262
52 of 138
UVA offence
UVA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.284
294
29 of 138
success rate
0.476
294
44 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.215
294
75 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.150
294
59 of 138
rush: success rate
0.467
294
54 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.908
294
84 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.536
294
14 of 138
pass: success rate
0.521
294
20 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.584
294
61 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.550
294
27 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.257
294
111 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.370
294
31 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.133
294
32 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.870
294
10 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.655
294
27 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.105
294
19 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.078
294
48 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.027
294
10 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.400
294
117 of 138
DEL defence
DEL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.080
294
79 of 138
success rate
0.388
294
65 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.312
294
100 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.060
294
36 of 138
rush: success rate
0.378
294
52 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.843
294
39 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.274
294
104 of 138
pass: success rate
0.414
294
81 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.642
294
97 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.455
294
75 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.262
294
51 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.903
294
79 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.150
294
25 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
294
114 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.800
294
34 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.184
294
104 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.109
294
89 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.075
294
103 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.400
294
77 of 138
UVA defence
UVA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.144
243
9 of 138
success rate
0.333
243
19 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.955
243
4 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.043
243
41 of 138
rush: success rate
0.375
243
51 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.651
243
10 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.145
243
5 of 138
pass: success rate
0.303
243
10 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.397
243
32 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.399
243
29 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.222
243
21 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.891
243
74 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.188
243
60 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.692
243
56 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.143
243
56 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.198
243
116 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.099
243
69 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.099
243
133 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.200
243
94 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs