Betting
Spread
DEL favouredMarket UVA −19.5Ours UVA −17.4
UVA favouredgap 2.1 toward DEL
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| DEL away | +19.5 | 16.5 | +850 | 10.1% | 9% |
| UVA home | -19.5 | 36.0 | -1450 | 89.9% | 92% |
| Total | 52.5 | |
UVA -19.5 when first seen, now UVA -19.5 · total 51.5 then, 52.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| DEL away | +17.5 | 17.6 | 12.7% | -2.0 |
| UVA home | -17.5 | 34.9 | 87.3% | +2.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| DEL away | +19.0 | 15.7 | 9.4% | -0.5 |
| UVA home | -19.0 | 34.5 | 90.6% | +0.5 |
| Total | 50.2 | | | -2.3 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | DEL | UVA |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -0.365th | +3.437th |
| Defence (cards) | -2.0117th | +2.319th |
| Card team rating | -2.379th | +5.733rd |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -10.7110th | +14.421st |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.7114th | +0.341st |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.9111th | +0.830th |
| Card line | UVA -17.4 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 85% | 10% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Nick Minicucci DEL80 ▼2 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.302
Completion57.3%
TD–INT5-3
Pass attempts, median game30
Pass yards, median game242
Rush yards, median game9
Games this season4
Team throws per game33.8
Beau Pribula UVA82 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.465
Completion76.7%
TD–INT11-1
Pass attempts, median game21
Pass yards, median game180
Rush yards, median game12
Games this season4
Team throws per game27.8
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| DEL away | 3-1 | 75% | -0.3 | 1-3 | -7.3 |
| UVA home | 3-1 | 75% | +7.1 | 2-2 | +0.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Scott Stadium · grass · 559 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 75°F, wind 11 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | DEL 7 days · UVA 6 days |
| Travel | DEL 187 miles, body clock 6:00pm at kickoff, +465 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| DEL | T. Salazer WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Salazer is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against Liberty on Friday, October 2th. |
| DEL | B. Rehmann WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Rehmann is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Liberty on Friday, October 2th. |
| DEL | G. Spiller RB | out Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 13 | Spiller is managing with an undisclosed injury, and has been shut down for the remainder of the season. |
| UVA | T. Ward WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Ward is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not expected to face against Florida State on Saturday. |
| UVA | P. Lewis RB | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Lewis is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Florida State on Saturday. |
| UVA | D. Newton-Short WR | questionable Hamstring | Sun, Sep 27 | Newton-Short is managing with a hamstring injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Florida State on Saturday, October 3th. |
| UVA | T. Hamann K | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Hamann is sidelined by a undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will face Florida State on Saturday, October 3th. |
| UVA | J. Stevens RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Stevens is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face against Florida State on Saturday, October 3th. |
| UVA | J. Hammond DL | out Undisclosed | Tue, Sep 15 | Jason is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period. |