Betting
Spread
UNC favouredMarket CLEM −3Ours CLEM −2.1
CLEM favouredgap 0.9 toward UNC
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| UNC away | +3.0 | 20.8 | +124 | 42.8% | — |
| CLEM home | -3.0 | 23.8 | -148 | 57.2% | — |
| Total | 44.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| UNC away | +2.0 | 21.2 | 44.7% | -1.0 |
| CLEM home | -2.0 | 23.3 | 55.3% | +1.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| UNC away | +8.0 | 18.4 | 29.6% | +5.0 |
| CLEM home | -8.0 | 26.3 | 70.4% | -5.0 |
| Total | 44.6 | | | +0.1 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | UNC | CLEM |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +0.460th | -1.676th |
| Defence (cards) | +0.945th | +2.615th |
| Card team rating | +1.253rd | +1.054th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +3.060th | +4.954th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.171st | +0.253rd |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +0.066th | +0.354th |
| Card line | CLEM -2.1 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 28% | 41% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Billy Edwards Jr. UNC78 ▲1 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.155
Completion56.4%
TD–INT3-1
Pass attempts, median game28
Pass yards, median game232
Rush yards, median game-3
Games this season3
Team throws per game28.0
Tait Reynolds CLEM74 overall · Freshman
Points added per play0.002
Completion63.9%
TD–INT1-2
Pass attempts, median game24
Pass yards, median game143
Rush yards, median game27
Games this season4
Team throws per game26.5
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| UNC away | 1-2 | 33% | +1.0 | 1-2 | -11.8 |
| CLEM home | 2-2 | 50% | -5.0 | 2-2 | -7.0 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| UNC | J. Washington TE | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 19 | Washington is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is unlikely to suit up against Clemson on Saturday, September 19th. |
| UNC | M. Abou Jaoude DL | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 19 | Abou-Jaoude is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not expected to suit up against Clemson on Saturday, September 19th. |
| UNC | R. Verhoff K | out Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 18 | Verhoff is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and he is not expected to face Clemson on Saturday, September 19th. |
| UNC | K. Chapman WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 17 | Chapman is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and he is not expected to face againt Clemson on Saturday. |
| UNC | C. Sadler WR | out Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 16 | Sadler is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unlikely to play against the Clemson on Saturday. |
| UNC | C. Warren WR | out Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 16 | Carnell is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and he is not expected to play against Clemson on Saturday, September 19th. |
| UNC | J. Warren TE | out Undisclosed | Fri, Aug 21 | Warren is managing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time. |
| CLEM | C. Vizzina QB | questionable Elbow | Wed, Sep 30 | Vizzina is dealing with an elbow injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Hurricanes on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| CLEM | D. Eziomume RB | out Leg | Mon, Sep 28 | Eziomume is liad up with a leg injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season. |
| CLEM | C. Gipson CB | out Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 25 | Gipson is dealing with an Undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against California on Friday, September 25th. |
| CLEM | J. Haynes RB | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Haynes is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to play against the California on Friday. |
| CLEM | K. McGriff WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 17 | McGriff is battling with an undisclsoed injury, and it is not anticipated that he will suit up against North Carolina on Saturday. |
| CLEM | C. Turner WR | out Personal | Fri, Aug 21 | Turner is dealing with some personal reasons, and he is without a definitive timetable for return. |
| CLEM | P. Streko RB | out Undisclosed | Tue, Aug 11 | Streko has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season. |