Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). PITT wins about 77% of the time at a number like ours.
SYR
Games
3
Plays per game
79.3
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-1.2 (74th, offence 97th, defence 51st)
Returning production
35% (pass 83%, rush -19%, receiving 20%)
PITT
Games
4
Plays per game
73.0
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
14.7 (20th, offence 36th, defence 15th)
Returning production
40% (pass 59%, rush 67%, receiving 24%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
SYR
PITT
pass rate, all downs
54%27th
53%31st
pass rate, standard downs
44%53rd
47%26th
pass rate, 1st down
49%30th
47%36th
no-huddle share
93%17th
23%107th
pass rate, passing downs
74%20th
68%44th
pass rate, red zone
47%27th
57%8th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.6108th
26.5110th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
SYR offence
SYR offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.038
238
113 of 138
success rate
0.399
238
109 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.330
238
27 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.143
238
64 of 138
rush: success rate
0.450
238
69 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.996
238
57 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.043
238
115 of 138
pass: success rate
0.372
238
115 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.712
238
32 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.443
238
113 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
238
72 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.851
238
102 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.220
238
121 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
238
40 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.538
238
92 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.126
238
43 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.084
238
60 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
238
40 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.200
238
119 of 138
PITT offence
PITT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.294
292
25 of 138
success rate
0.497
292
26 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.249
292
60 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.078
292
86 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
292
62 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.809
292
111 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.507
292
16 of 138
pass: success rate
0.530
292
14 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.595
292
58 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.528
292
40 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.412
292
13 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.309
292
39 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.182
292
88 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.632
292
115 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.233
292
55 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.096
292
13 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.058
292
20 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
292
27 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.400
292
73 of 138
SYR defence
SYR defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.126
183
13 of 138
success rate
0.361
183
42 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.087
183
21 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.026
183
70 of 138
rush: success rate
0.433
183
96 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.926
183
75 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.251
183
1 of 138
pass: success rate
0.289
183
5 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.377
183
24 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.452
183
74 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.206
183
13 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.629
183
49 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.233
183
111 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
183
87 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.750
183
31 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.186
183
107 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.137
183
121 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.049
183
41 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.900
183
91 of 138
PITT defence
PITT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.107
240
18 of 138
success rate
0.287
240
2 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.379
240
119 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.178
240
12 of 138
rush: success rate
0.278
240
7 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.995
240
92 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.012
240
28 of 138
pass: success rate
0.306
240
11 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.620
240
93 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.345
240
6 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.200
240
10 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
1.777
240
2 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.320
240
137 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.538
240
12 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.688
240
3 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
240
92 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.117
240
104 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.063
240
75 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
240
124 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs