Betting
Spread
WAKE favouredMarket WAKE −2.5Ours WAKE −3.6
PUR favouredgap 1.1 toward WAKE
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| WAKE away | -2.5 | 27.0 | -148 | 57.2% | — |
| PUR home | +2.5 | 24.5 | +124 | 42.8% | — |
| Total | 51.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| WAKE away | -3.5 | 27.5 | 60.4% | -1.0 |
| PUR home | +3.5 | 24.0 | 39.6% | +1.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| WAKE away | -4.5 | 26.0 | 61.8% | -2.0 |
| PUR home | +4.5 | 21.8 | 38.2% | +2.0 |
| Total | 47.8 | | | -3.7 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | WAKE | PUR |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +0.163rd | -1.473rd |
| Defence (cards) | +0.944th | -0.988th |
| Card team rating | +1.055th | -2.378th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +3.757th | -6.494th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.345th | -0.172nd |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +0.453rd | -0.385th |
| Card line | PUR +3.6 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 14% | 48% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Gio Lopez WAKE81 ▲2 overall · Junior
Points added per play—
Completion—
TD–INT—
Pass attempts, median game—
Pass yards, median game—
Rush yards, median game—
Games this season0
Team throws per game31.8
Ryan Browne PUR77 ▲2 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.425
Completion71.3%
TD–INT7-1
Pass attempts, median game30
Pass yards, median game323
Rush yards, median game-6
Games this season4
Team throws per game36.0
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| WAKE away | 2-2 | 50% | +4.0 | 2-2 | +5.8 |
| PUR home | 1-3 | 25% | -5.5 | 4-0 | +17.0 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Ross-Ade Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| WAKE | G. Lopez QB | questionable Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 25 | Lopez is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will be available against the Louisville on Saturday. |
| WAKE | N. Carr WR | out Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 16 | Carr is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to play against the Miami on Saturday, September 19th. |
| PUR | G. Burhenn TE | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Burhenn is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to face against Notre Dame on Saturday. |
| PUR | K. Fox TE | out Knee | Thu, Aug 13 | Fox is laid up with a knee injury, and there is no timetable for his return. |