Betting
Spread
UCLA favouredMarket UCLA −2.5Ours CAL −0.5
CAL favouredgap 3 toward CAL
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| UCLA away | -2.5 | 28.0 | -142 | 56.3% | — |
| CAL home | +2.5 | 25.5 | +120 | 43.7% | — |
| Total | 53.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| UCLA away | +0.5 | 26.5 | 49.8% | +3.0 |
| CAL home | -0.5 | 27.0 | 50.2% | -3.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| UCLA away | -0.5 | 25.8 | 51.5% | +2.0 |
| CAL home | +0.5 | 25.3 | 48.5% | -2.0 |
| Total | 51.0 | | | -2.5 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | UCLA | CAL |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +5.723rd | +5.921st |
| Defence (cards) | +1.531st | +0.259th |
| Card team rating | +7.224th | +6.129th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +13.824th | -3.281st |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.529th | -0.279th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +0.925th | -0.377th |
| Card line | CAL -0.5 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 57% | 58% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Nico Iamaleava UCLA87 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.146
Completion62.6%
TD–INT4-2
Pass attempts, median game23
Pass yards, median game197
Rush yards, median game42
Games this season4
Team throws per game25.0
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele CAL86 ▲1 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.157
Completion64.2%
TD–INT7-4
Pass attempts, median game34
Pass yards, median game227
Rush yards, median game-6
Games this season4
Team throws per game38.5
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| UCLA away | 4-0 | 100% | +18.0 | 3-1 | +9.5 |
| CAL home | 1-3 | 25% | -9.9 | 1-3 | -7.5 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (California Memorial Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| UCLA | M. Matthews WR | out Undisclosed | Mon, Sep 21 | Matthews is dealing with a lower-leg injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season. |
| UCLA | T. Johnson CB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Johnson is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Terrapins on Friday, September 25th. |
| UCLA | J. Johnson CB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Johnson is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Terrapins on Saturday, September 25th. |
| UCLA | S. Yoon OG | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Yoon is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Terrapins on Friday, September 25th. |
| UCLA | A. Mizell WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Mizell is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Terrapins on Friday, September 25th. |
| UCLA | T. Dieffenbach QB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Dieffenbach is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Terrapins on Friday, September 25th. |
| UCLA | J. Phifer TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Phifer is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Terrapins on Friday, September 25th. |
| CAL | C. Vargas RB | out Leg | Sat, Sep 26 | |
| CAL | R. Walker TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | |
| CAL | C. Boscia WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | |
| CAL | T. Rogers WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | |