Betting
Spread
MIA favouredMarket MIA −24.5Ours MIA −29.9
STAN favouredgap 5.4 toward MIA
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| MIA away | -24.5 | 35.5 | -4000 | 94.3% | — |
| STAN home | +24.5 | 11.0 | +1600 | 5.7% | — |
| Total | 46.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| MIA away | -30.0 | 38.2 | 97.1% | -5.5 |
| STAN home | +30.0 | 8.3 | 2.9% | +5.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| MIA away | -20.0 | 34.1 | 91.9% | +4.5 |
| STAN home | +20.0 | 14.3 | 8.1% | -4.5 |
| Total | 48.4 | | | +1.9 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | MIA | STAN |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +10.93rd | -3.598th |
| Defence (cards) | +2.516th | -0.469th |
| Card team rating | +13.45th | -3.991st |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +25.75th | -8.4102nd |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +1.17th | -0.492nd |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +1.95th | -0.6100th |
| Card line | STAN +29.9 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 37% | 21% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Darian Mensah MIA93 ▲2 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.861
Completion88.7%
TD–INT14-0
Pass attempts, median game29
Pass yards, median game295
Rush yards, median game13
Games this season4
Team throws per game33.0
Davis Warren STAN74 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.282
Completion58.0%
TD–INT5-0
Pass attempts, median game35
Pass yards, median game262
Rush yards, median game-1
Games this season4
Team throws per game37.0
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| MIA away | 3-1 | 75% | +6.3 | 3-1 | +5.5 |
| STAN home | 2-2 | 50% | -4.4 | 3-1 | +5.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Stanford Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| MIA | O. Ruskavich TE | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Ruskavich is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not expected to face against Clemson on Saturday. |
| MIA | M. Fletcher Jr. RB | questionable Upper Body | Sun, Sep 27 | Fletcher Jr is hampered by upper body injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against Clemson on Saturday, October 3th. |
| MIA | J. Moore WR | out Upper Body | Mon, Sep 21 | Moore is battling with an upper body injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season. |
| MIA | C. Brown RB | out Lower Body | Mon, Sep 21 | Brown is dealing with a lower body injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season. |
| MIA | L. Gilbert TE | out Undisclosed | Tue, Aug 11 | Gilbert has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season |
| STAN | N. Prongos OG | probable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Prongos is dealing with a Undisclosed injury, but he is expected to suit up against the Georgia Tech on Saturday, September 26th. |
| STAN | J. Galvan LB | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 19 | Galvan is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return. |
| STAN | L. Bironas K | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 5 | Bironas is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is anticipated to play against Duke on September 19th. |
| STAN | D. Sharper WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 5 | Sharper is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Duke on September 19th. |
| STAN | C. Shaw WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 5 | Shaw is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Duke on September 19th. |
| STAN | A. Kilstrom OG | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 5 | Kilstrom is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Duke on September 19th. |