Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). WAKE wins about 89% of the time at a number like ours.
AKR
Games
4
Plays per game
65.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-23.1 (132nd, offence 130th, defence 130th)
Returning production
92% (pass 87%, rush 102%, receiving 92%)
WAKE
Games
4
Plays per game
65.8
Drives per game
10.8
SP+
3.7 (57th, offence 50th, defence 63rd)
Returning production
14% (pass 23%, rush 5%, receiving 13%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
AKR
WAKE
pass rate, all downs
56%21st
53%35th
pass rate, standard downs
46%35th
43%55th
pass rate, 1st down
50%21st
46%47th
no-huddle share
98%3rd
66%66th
pass rate, passing downs
77%12th
74%21st
pass rate, red zone
48%25th
34%89th
seconds per play (own drives)
28.181st
27.888th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
AKR offence
AKR offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.020
262
117 of 138
success rate
0.443
262
66 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.981
262
137 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.099
262
79 of 138
rush: success rate
0.513
262
19 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.709
262
129 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.027
262
117 of 138
pass: success rate
0.410
262
92 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.262
262
134 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
262
59 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.308
262
74 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.619
262
12 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.130
262
23 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
262
27 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.950
262
69 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.198
262
131 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.122
262
126 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.076
262
119 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.400
262
4 of 138
WAKE offence
WAKE offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.280
263
31 of 138
success rate
0.452
263
58 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.305
263
36 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.139
263
66 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
263
58 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.851
263
103 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.400
263
29 of 138
pass: success rate
0.433
263
74 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.752
263
26 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.483
263
81 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.386
263
23 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.138
263
66 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.146
263
43 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.550
263
129 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.731
263
79 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.125
263
41 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.087
263
70 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
263
29 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.000
263
46 of 138
AKR defence
AKR defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.241
246
129 of 138
success rate
0.431
246
98 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.372
246
115 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.045
246
76 of 138
rush: success rate
0.436
246
101 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.878
246
55 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.494
246
136 of 138
pass: success rate
0.419
246
90 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.910
246
134 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.482
246
94 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.316
246
102 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.891
246
73 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.188
246
57 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.688
246
55 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.792
246
99 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.150
246
50 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.081
246
37 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.069
246
91 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.400
246
22 of 138
WAKE defence
WAKE defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.160
297
110 of 138
success rate
0.468
297
127 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.054
297
17 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.049
297
77 of 138
rush: success rate
0.412
297
78 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.871
297
49 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.252
297
98 of 138
pass: success rate
0.519
297
136 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.098
297
2 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.511
297
122 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.346
297
119 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.865
297
70 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.213
297
93 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.700
297
60 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.385
297
68 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.128
297
22 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.094
297
60 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.034
297
8 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.500
297
112 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs