Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UVA wins about 73% of the time at a number like ours.
NCSU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.2
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
3.4 (58th, offence 37th, defence 84th)
Returning production
60% (pass 93%, rush 101%, receiving 26%)
UVA
Games
4
Plays per game
73.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
14.4 (21st, offence 29th, defence 20th)
Returning production
10% (pass 1%, rush 21%, receiving 9%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
NCSU
UVA
pass rate, all downs
47%80th
43%110th
pass rate, standard downs
37%110th
37%105th
pass rate, 1st down
41%86th
42%82nd
no-huddle share
44%87th
8%127th
pass rate, passing downs
71%32nd
59%91st
pass rate, red zone
39%66th
37%77th
seconds per play (own drives)
28.971st
30.630th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
NCSU offence
NCSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.221
281
54 of 138
success rate
0.488
281
33 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.209
281
77 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.215
281
36 of 138
rush: success rate
0.493
281
30 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.037
281
41 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.257
281
67 of 138
pass: success rate
0.484
281
39 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.406
281
110 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.548
281
30 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.341
281
51 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.295
281
41 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.149
281
47 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.840
281
21 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.679
281
25 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
281
88 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.093
281
82 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
281
95 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.900
281
64 of 138
UVA offence
UVA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.284
294
29 of 138
success rate
0.476
294
44 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.215
294
75 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.150
294
59 of 138
rush: success rate
0.467
294
54 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.908
294
84 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.536
294
14 of 138
pass: success rate
0.521
294
20 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.584
294
61 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.550
294
27 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.257
294
111 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.370
294
31 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.133
294
32 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.870
294
10 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.655
294
27 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.105
294
19 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.078
294
48 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.027
294
10 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.400
294
117 of 138
NCSU defence
NCSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.120
243
93 of 138
success rate
0.399
243
74 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.250
243
82 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.067
243
84 of 138
rush: success rate
0.446
243
106 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.967
243
86 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.270
243
101 of 138
pass: success rate
0.366
243
42 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.643
243
99 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.456
243
77 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.264
243
54 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.821
243
66 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.190
243
61 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
243
90 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.591
243
84 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.152
243
54 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.070
243
17 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.082
243
118 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.500
243
58 of 138
UVA defence
UVA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.144
243
9 of 138
success rate
0.333
243
19 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.955
243
4 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.043
243
41 of 138
rush: success rate
0.375
243
51 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.651
243
10 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.145
243
5 of 138
pass: success rate
0.303
243
10 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.397
243
32 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.399
243
29 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.222
243
21 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.891
243
74 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.188
243
60 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.692
243
56 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.143
243
56 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.198
243
116 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.099
243
69 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.099
243
133 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.200
243
94 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs