Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MISS wins about 67% of the time at a number like ours.
MISS
Games
4
Plays per game
69.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
11.1 (32nd, offence 12th, defence 75th)
Returning production
50% (pass 79%, rush 84%, receiving 19%)
OU
Games
4
Plays per game
63.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
12.8 (27th, offence 75th, defence 5th)
Returning production
63% (pass 92%, rush 122%, receiving 42%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MISS
OU
pass rate, all downs
59%6th
48%68th
pass rate, standard downs
55%2nd
41%78th
pass rate, 1st down
62%1st
37%106th
no-huddle share
75%55th
28%104th
pass rate, passing downs
70%38th
65%59th
pass rate, red zone
39%65th
38%68th
seconds per play (own drives)
24.1135th
29.167th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MISS offence
MISS offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.252
276
38 of 138
success rate
0.518
276
8 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.162
276
102 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.154
276
56 of 138
rush: success rate
0.518
276
17 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.894
276
85 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.435
276
25 of 138
pass: success rate
0.526
276
16 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.400
276
116 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.568
276
13 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.371
276
31 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.935
276
96 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.175
276
81 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.760
276
63 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.750
276
23 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.127
276
44 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.072
276
37 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.054
276
71 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.700
276
37 of 138
OU offence
OU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.045
255
129 of 138
success rate
0.392
255
113 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.112
255
123 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.260
255
137 of 138
rush: success rate
0.362
255
125 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.542
255
138 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.293
255
58 of 138
pass: success rate
0.431
255
75 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.714
255
31 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.432
255
123 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.304
255
77 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.603
255
126 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.223
255
124 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.462
255
136 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.389
255
102 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
255
89 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.118
255
123 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.039
255
33 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.400
255
42 of 138
MISS defence
MISS defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.225
276
126 of 138
success rate
0.471
276
128 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.145
276
40 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.177
276
123 of 138
rush: success rate
0.478
276
128 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.952
276
81 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.302
276
111 of 138
pass: success rate
0.450
276
108 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.480
276
53 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.540
276
134 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.295
276
86 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.900
276
76 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.217
276
99 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
276
113 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.000
276
112 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.130
276
25 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.087
276
48 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.043
276
26 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.000
276
13 of 138
OU defence
OU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.182
227
2 of 138
success rate
0.304
227
6 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.235
227
74 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.104
227
27 of 138
rush: success rate
0.287
227
10 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.171
227
129 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.162
227
4 of 138
pass: success rate
0.337
227
22 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.322
227
16 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.333
227
4 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.247
227
37 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.364
227
20 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.194
227
70 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.583
227
21 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.083
227
8 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.216
227
128 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.145
227
128 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.070
227
96 of 138
opponent average starting field position
66.100
227
5 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs