Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). SC wins about 72% of the time at a number like ours.
SC
Games
4
Plays per game
74.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
7.5 (48th, offence 39th, defence 51st)
Returning production
69% (pass 65%, rush 80%, receiving 67%)
ARK
Games
4
Plays per game
76.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-0.3 (70th, offence 59th, defence 90th)
Returning production
14% (pass 19%, rush 14%, receiving 12%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
SC
ARK
pass rate, all downs
48%71st
58%8th
pass rate, standard downs
42%67th
47%27th
pass rate, 1st down
43%67th
51%20th
no-huddle share
52%80th
88%26th
pass rate, passing downs
63%73rd
77%11th
pass rate, red zone
42%50th
38%71st
seconds per play (own drives)
26.0122nd
28.776th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
SC offence
SC offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.227
296
51 of 138
success rate
0.476
296
43 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.228
296
68 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.302
296
14 of 138
rush: success rate
0.526
296
11 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.047
296
39 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.175
296
89 of 138
pass: success rate
0.415
296
89 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.521
296
76 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.549
296
29 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.284
296
96 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.722
296
9 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.130
296
24 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.789
296
47 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.296
296
49 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.122
296
39 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.068
296
27 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.054
296
72 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.800
296
19 of 138
ARK offence
ARK offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.049
306
109 of 138
success rate
0.422
306
90 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.118
306
120 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.075
306
125 of 138
rush: success rate
0.386
306
116 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.566
306
137 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.181
306
86 of 138
pass: success rate
0.450
306
59 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.460
306
95 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.485
306
77 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
306
69 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.579
306
127 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.181
306
87 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
306
17 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.500
306
93 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.180
306
122 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.092
306
80 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.088
306
135 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.200
306
57 of 138
SC defence
SC defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.151
235
104 of 138
success rate
0.362
235
43 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.556
235
137 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.052
235
38 of 138
rush: success rate
0.327
235
25 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.027
235
100 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.466
235
134 of 138
pass: success rate
0.412
235
78 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.903
235
133 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.390
235
23 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.315
235
101 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.293
235
14 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.243
235
115 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.636
235
37 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.059
235
134 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.136
235
35 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.089
235
54 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.047
235
34 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.600
235
61 of 138
ARK defence
ARK defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.158
229
106 of 138
success rate
0.432
229
99 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.110
229
28 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.193
229
126 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
229
113 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.906
229
68 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.160
229
77 of 138
pass: success rate
0.418
229
86 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.363
229
23 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.527
229
129 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.188
229
5 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.226
229
117 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.150
229
24 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.875
229
128 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.143
229
135 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.144
229
41 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.096
229
63 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.048
229
36 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.800
229
31 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs