Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). KSU wins about 72% of the time at a number like ours.
KSU
Games
4
Plays per game
74.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
14.0 (23rd, offence 21st, defence 34th)
Returning production
71% (pass 100%, rush 61%, receiving 57%)
ISU
Games
4
Plays per game
60.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
3.4 (58th, offence 86th, defence 39th)
Returning production
2% (pass 3%, rush 5%, receiving 0%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
KSU
ISU
pass rate, all downs
48%67th
41%119th
pass rate, standard downs
42%63rd
35%114th
pass rate, 1st down
44%60th
31%122nd
no-huddle share
76%51st
36%92nd
pass rate, passing downs
63%74th
53%117th
pass rate, red zone
43%47th
28%116th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.168th
30.436th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
KSU offence
KSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.307
296
18 of 138
success rate
0.514
296
15 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.215
296
74 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.320
296
11 of 138
rush: success rate
0.560
296
6 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.016
296
52 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.305
296
56 of 138
pass: success rate
0.471
296
50 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.484
296
89 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.549
296
28 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.433
296
7 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.398
296
29 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.133
296
30 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
296
60 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.963
296
17 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.084
296
5 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.057
296
17 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.027
296
8 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.100
296
76 of 138
ISU offence
ISU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.117
241
87 of 138
success rate
0.382
241
119 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.334
241
25 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.105
241
76 of 138
rush: success rate
0.387
241
114 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.191
241
10 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.205
241
78 of 138
pass: success rate
0.402
241
96 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.546
241
70 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.421
241
127 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.299
241
86 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.993
241
90 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.190
241
92 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.583
241
122 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.636
241
29 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.170
241
109 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.083
241
57 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.087
241
133 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.100
241
60 of 138
KSU defence
KSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.039
223
33 of 138
success rate
0.305
223
7 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.495
223
135 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.071
223
85 of 138
rush: success rate
0.341
223
32 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.443
223
138 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.119
223
10 of 138
pass: success rate
0.258
223
1 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.643
223
98 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.333
223
3 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.266
223
56 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.511
223
32 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.256
223
126 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.417
223
5 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.857
223
103 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.238
223
134 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.193
223
137 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.045
223
30 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.100
223
109 of 138
ISU defence
ISU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.038
243
35 of 138
success rate
0.370
243
51 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.093
243
25 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.082
243
31 of 138
rush: success rate
0.374
243
49 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.864
243
44 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.069
243
52 of 138
pass: success rate
0.362
243
34 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.439
243
41 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.467
243
85 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.158
243
1 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.576
243
40 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.198
243
75 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.700
243
59 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.048
243
6 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.177
243
86 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.128
243
115 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.049
243
38 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.800
243
32 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs