Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UTAH wins about 67% of the time at a number like ours.
UTAH
Games
4
Plays per game
68.5
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
21.5 (9th, offence 13th, defence 11th)
Returning production
68% (pass 97%, rush 83%, receiving 29%)
TCU
Games
4
Plays per game
69.8
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
8.2 (42nd, offence 58th, defence 28th)
Returning production
22% (pass 11%, rush 31%, receiving 29%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UTAH
TCU
pass rate, all downs
45%94th
52%41st
pass rate, standard downs
42%70th
47%33rd
pass rate, 1st down
45%55th
46%43rd
pass rate, red zone
31%104th
34%88th
no-huddle share
94%15th
97%10th
pass rate, passing downs
55%110th
63%72nd
seconds per play (own drives)
28.479th
30.924th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UTAH offence
UTAH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.328
274
15 of 138
success rate
0.507
274
19 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.321
274
30 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.285
274
17 of 138
rush: success rate
0.490
274
32 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.167
274
11 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.397
274
31 of 138
pass: success rate
0.529
274
15 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.517
274
77 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.534
274
37 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.424
274
10 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.479
274
23 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.195
274
97 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.739
274
76 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.969
274
16 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.128
274
46 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.088
274
74 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.040
274
35 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.500
274
127 of 138
TCU offence
TCU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.174
279
64 of 138
success rate
0.462
279
51 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.240
279
62 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.030
279
104 of 138
rush: success rate
0.470
279
51 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.771
279
120 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.319
279
53 of 138
pass: success rate
0.464
279
52 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.664
279
41 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.573
279
9 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.218
279
130 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.030
279
84 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.164
279
63 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
279
19 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.433
279
99 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
279
59 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.104
279
106 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.029
279
12 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.500
279
113 of 138
UTAH defence
UTAH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.074
270
24 of 138
success rate
0.319
270
11 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.337
270
108 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.092
270
30 of 138
rush: success rate
0.324
270
23 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.944
270
79 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.083
270
14 of 138
pass: success rate
0.310
270
13 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.606
270
92 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.340
270
5 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.291
270
82 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.632
270
50 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.204
270
82 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
270
10 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.278
270
12 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.204
270
123 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.085
270
46 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.119
270
138 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.800
270
119 of 138
TCU defence
TCU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.121
223
14 of 138
success rate
0.368
223
47 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.925
223
1 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.286
223
3 of 138
rush: success rate
0.316
223
17 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.461
223
4 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.072
223
54 of 138
pass: success rate
0.417
223
85 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.359
223
21 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.408
223
35 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.282
223
72 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.544
223
35 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.211
223
90 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.562
223
15 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
223
49 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
223
94 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.117
223
105 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.063
223
77 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.600
223
84 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs