Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). HOU wins about 76% of the time at a number like ours.
HOU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
12.1 (29th, offence 15th, defence 53rd)
Returning production
81% (pass 92%, rush 523%, receiving 61%)
WVU
Games
4
Plays per game
74.0
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
1.4 (64th, offence 43rd, defence 92nd)
Returning production
14% (pass 62%, rush -4%, receiving 9%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
HOU
WVU
pass rate, all downs
42%116th
24%135th
pass rate, standard downs
39%88th
15%136th
pass rate, 1st down
38%101st
11%137th
no-huddle share
85%31st
99%2nd
pass rate, passing downs
52%123rd
51%125th
pass rate, red zone
31%105th
11%136th
seconds per play (own drives)
28.972nd
24.7129th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
HOU offence
HOU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.439
280
3 of 138
success rate
0.579
280
2 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.123
280
118 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.307
280
13 of 138
rush: success rate
0.578
280
2 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.796
280
112 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.639
280
5 of 138
pass: success rate
0.593
280
3 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.580
280
63 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.581
280
7 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.569
280
1 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.904
280
3 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.099
280
5 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.857
280
13 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.129
280
11 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.100
280
15 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.057
280
16 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.043
280
45 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.300
280
129 of 138
WVU offence
WVU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.184
296
62 of 138
success rate
0.449
296
60 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.205
296
83 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.152
296
58 of 138
rush: success rate
0.468
296
52 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.936
296
78 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.307
296
55 of 138
pass: success rate
0.400
296
99 of 138
pass: explosiveness
2.226
296
1 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.491
296
73 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
296
60 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.247
296
50 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.135
296
33 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.720
296
88 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.034
296
64 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.111
296
26 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.078
296
49 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.034
296
20 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.600
296
68 of 138
HOU defence
HOU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.099
246
85 of 138
success rate
0.394
246
70 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.360
246
112 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.095
246
28 of 138
rush: success rate
0.347
246
34 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.839
246
35 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.303
246
112 of 138
pass: success rate
0.443
246
106 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.651
246
101 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.451
246
73 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.280
246
68 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.318
246
15 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.214
246
94 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.643
246
38 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.812
246
130 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.211
246
126 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.098
246
68 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.114
246
137 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.500
246
127 of 138
WVU defence
WVU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.124
280
96 of 138
success rate
0.443
280
108 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.181
280
51 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.025
280
46 of 138
rush: success rate
0.391
280
61 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.841
280
37 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.336
280
117 of 138
pass: success rate
0.511
280
134 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.442
280
44 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.520
280
125 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.262
280
52 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.902
280
78 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.203
280
81 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
280
66 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.269
280
63 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.154
280
55 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.114
280
98 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.039
280
16 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.700
280
88 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs