Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UTAH wins about 57% of the time at a number like ours.
BYU
Games
3
Plays per game
62.3
Drives per game
11.3
SP+
16.3 (17th, offence 24th, defence 21st)
Returning production
79% (pass 100%, rush 97%, receiving 51%)
UTAH
Games
4
Plays per game
68.5
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
21.5 (9th, offence 13th, defence 11th)
Returning production
68% (pass 97%, rush 83%, receiving 29%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
BYU
UTAH
pass rate, all downs
37%129th
45%94th
pass rate, standard downs
33%122nd
42%70th
pass rate, 1st down
34%115th
45%55th
no-huddle share
2%138th
94%15th
pass rate, passing downs
53%121st
55%110th
pass rate, red zone
29%113th
31%104th
seconds per play (own drives)
32.411th
28.479th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
BYU offence
BYU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.448
187
1 of 138
success rate
0.599
187
1 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.157
187
103 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.479
187
1 of 138
rush: success rate
0.617
187
1 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.053
187
35 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.380
187
37 of 138
pass: success rate
0.567
187
9 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.317
187
125 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.664
187
1 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.342
187
49 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.952
187
2 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.122
187
18 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.941
187
4 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.435
187
3 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.059
187
2 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.016
187
1 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.043
187
44 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.400
187
102 of 138
UTAH offence
UTAH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.328
274
15 of 138
success rate
0.507
274
19 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.321
274
30 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.285
274
17 of 138
rush: success rate
0.490
274
32 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.167
274
11 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.397
274
31 of 138
pass: success rate
0.529
274
15 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.517
274
77 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.534
274
37 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.424
274
10 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.479
274
23 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.195
274
97 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.739
274
76 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.969
274
16 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.128
274
46 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.088
274
74 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.040
274
35 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.500
274
127 of 138
BYU defence
BYU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.061
187
28 of 138
success rate
0.369
187
48 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.182
187
52 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.069
187
34 of 138
rush: success rate
0.355
187
36 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.894
187
62 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.024
187
34 of 138
pass: success rate
0.390
187
66 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.383
187
27 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.387
187
20 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.333
187
113 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.411
187
25 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.224
187
106 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.769
187
95 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.750
187
97 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.171
187
80 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.091
187
57 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.080
187
115 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.800
187
90 of 138
UTAH defence
UTAH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.074
270
24 of 138
success rate
0.319
270
11 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.337
270
108 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.092
270
30 of 138
rush: success rate
0.324
270
23 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.944
270
79 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.083
270
14 of 138
pass: success rate
0.310
270
13 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.606
270
92 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.340
270
5 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.291
270
82 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.632
270
50 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.204
270
82 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
270
10 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.278
270
12 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.204
270
123 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.085
270
46 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.119
270
138 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.800
270
119 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs