Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UTAH wins about 72% of the time at a number like ours.
UTAH
Games
4
Plays per game
68.5
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
21.5 (9th, offence 13th, defence 11th)
Returning production
68% (pass 97%, rush 83%, receiving 29%)
CIN
Games
4
Plays per game
67.5
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
9.2 (38th, offence 23rd, defence 63rd)
Returning production
8% (pass 4%, rush 4%, receiving 15%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UTAH
CIN
pass rate, all downs
45%94th
40%122nd
pass rate, standard downs
42%70th
37%104th
pass rate, 1st down
45%55th
40%90th
pass rate, red zone
31%104th
30%107th
no-huddle share
94%15th
68%63rd
pass rate, passing downs
55%110th
47%131st
seconds per play (own drives)
28.479th
28.380th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UTAH offence
UTAH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.328
274
15 of 138
success rate
0.507
274
19 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.321
274
30 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.285
274
17 of 138
rush: success rate
0.490
274
32 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.167
274
11 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.397
274
31 of 138
pass: success rate
0.529
274
15 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.517
274
77 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.534
274
37 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.424
274
10 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.479
274
23 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.195
274
97 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.739
274
76 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.969
274
16 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.128
274
46 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.088
274
74 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.040
274
35 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.500
274
127 of 138
CIN offence
CIN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.363
270
11 of 138
success rate
0.496
270
27 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.305
270
35 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.361
270
4 of 138
rush: success rate
0.497
270
26 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.224
270
8 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.385
270
34 of 138
pass: success rate
0.509
270
26 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.432
270
105 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.560
270
17 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.338
270
53 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.677
270
11 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.132
270
26 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
270
22 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.200
270
8 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.107
270
20 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.096
270
88 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.011
270
2 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.200
270
95 of 138
UTAH defence
UTAH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.074
270
24 of 138
success rate
0.319
270
11 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.337
270
108 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.092
270
30 of 138
rush: success rate
0.324
270
23 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.944
270
79 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.083
270
14 of 138
pass: success rate
0.310
270
13 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.606
270
92 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.340
270
5 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.291
270
82 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.632
270
50 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.204
270
82 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
270
10 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.278
270
12 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.204
270
123 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.085
270
46 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.119
270
138 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.800
270
119 of 138
CIN defence
CIN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.102
270
88 of 138
success rate
0.415
270
87 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.205
270
60 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.113
270
102 of 138
rush: success rate
0.482
270
129 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.828
270
33 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.220
270
93 of 138
pass: success rate
0.378
270
51 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.565
270
75 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.462
270
80 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.318
270
105 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.217
270
115 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.179
270
44 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
270
45 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.947
270
108 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
270
74 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.107
270
84 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
270
54 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.500
270
126 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs