Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). BYU wins about 76% of the time at a number like ours.
BYU
Games
3
Plays per game
62.3
Drives per game
11.3
SP+
16.3 (17th, offence 24th, defence 21st)
Returning production
79% (pass 100%, rush 97%, receiving 51%)
UCF
Games
4
Plays per game
56.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
8.7 (40th, offence 65th, defence 23rd)
Returning production
25% (pass 4%, rush -17%, receiving 58%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
BYU
UCF
pass rate, all downs
37%129th
43%106th
pass rate, standard downs
33%122nd
38%97th
pass rate, 1st down
34%115th
43%68th
no-huddle share
2%138th
73%56th
pass rate, passing downs
53%121st
55%112th
pass rate, red zone
29%113th
24%123rd
seconds per play (own drives)
32.411th
29.754th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
BYU offence
BYU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.448
187
1 of 138
success rate
0.599
187
1 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.157
187
103 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.479
187
1 of 138
rush: success rate
0.617
187
1 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.053
187
35 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.380
187
37 of 138
pass: success rate
0.567
187
9 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.317
187
125 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.664
187
1 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.342
187
49 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.952
187
2 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.122
187
18 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.941
187
4 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.435
187
3 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.059
187
2 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.016
187
1 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.043
187
44 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.400
187
102 of 138
UCF offence
UCF offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.119
227
85 of 138
success rate
0.436
227
76 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.206
227
81 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.180
227
46 of 138
rush: success rate
0.445
227
74 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.165
227
12 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.053
227
113 of 138
pass: success rate
0.426
227
79 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.278
227
130 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
227
67 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.299
227
87 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.052
227
80 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.172
227
78 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
227
41 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.769
227
21 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
227
65 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.097
227
92 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.040
227
34 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
63.200
227
136 of 138
BYU defence
BYU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.061
187
28 of 138
success rate
0.369
187
48 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.182
187
52 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.069
187
34 of 138
rush: success rate
0.355
187
36 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.894
187
62 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.024
187
34 of 138
pass: success rate
0.390
187
66 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.383
187
27 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.387
187
20 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.333
187
113 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.411
187
25 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.224
187
106 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.769
187
95 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.750
187
97 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.171
187
80 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.091
187
57 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.080
187
115 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.800
187
90 of 138
UCF defence
UCF defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.047
289
32 of 138
success rate
0.343
289
25 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.275
289
91 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.119
289
23 of 138
rush: success rate
0.307
289
14 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.872
289
50 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.077
289
56 of 138
pass: success rate
0.385
289
60 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.595
289
87 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.400
289
31 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.248
289
39 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.291
289
13 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.241
289
114 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.625
289
34 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.304
289
14 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.173
289
82 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.111
289
92 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
289
73 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.500
289
81 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs