Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). HOU wins about 59% of the time at a number like ours.
OKST
Games
4
Plays per game
80.0
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
10.2 (34th, offence 33rd, defence 42nd)
Returning production
0% (pass 0%, rush 0%, receiving 0%)
HOU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
12.1 (29th, offence 15th, defence 53rd)
Returning production
81% (pass 92%, rush 523%, receiving 61%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
OKST
HOU
pass rate, all downs
48%66th
42%116th
pass rate, standard downs
46%40th
39%88th
pass rate, 1st down
45%56th
38%101st
no-huddle share
97%9th
85%31st
pass rate, passing downs
56%104th
52%123rd
pass rate, red zone
46%32nd
31%105th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.6109th
28.972nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
OKST offence
OKST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.161
320
68 of 138
success rate
0.491
320
31 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.108
320
125 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.071
320
87 of 138
rush: success rate
0.472
320
48 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.731
320
127 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.333
320
50 of 138
pass: success rate
0.524
320
19 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.503
320
82 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.553
320
25 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.313
320
68 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.226
320
55 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.172
320
77 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.640
320
113 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.750
320
78 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.091
320
11 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.044
320
5 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.047
320
55 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.600
320
49 of 138
HOU offence
HOU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.439
280
3 of 138
success rate
0.579
280
2 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.123
280
118 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.307
280
13 of 138
rush: success rate
0.578
280
2 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.796
280
112 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.639
280
5 of 138
pass: success rate
0.593
280
3 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.580
280
63 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.581
280
7 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.569
280
1 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.904
280
3 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.099
280
5 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.857
280
13 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.129
280
11 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.100
280
15 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.057
280
16 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.043
280
45 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.300
280
129 of 138
OKST defence
OKST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.030
252
37 of 138
success rate
0.373
252
56 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.158
252
44 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.040
252
73 of 138
rush: success rate
0.424
252
85 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.927
252
77 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.136
252
8 of 138
pass: success rate
0.301
252
9 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.639
252
96 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.456
252
78 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.198
252
8 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.082
252
105 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.167
252
34 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.611
252
28 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
252
48 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
252
75 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.083
252
44 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.079
252
113 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.400
252
56 of 138
HOU defence
HOU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.099
246
85 of 138
success rate
0.394
246
70 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.360
246
112 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.095
246
28 of 138
rush: success rate
0.347
246
34 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.839
246
35 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.303
246
112 of 138
pass: success rate
0.443
246
106 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.651
246
101 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.451
246
73 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.280
246
68 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.318
246
15 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.214
246
94 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.643
246
38 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.812
246
130 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.211
246
126 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.098
246
68 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.114
246
137 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.500
246
127 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs