Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). WVU wins about 57% of the time at a number like ours.
CIN
Games
4
Plays per game
67.5
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
9.2 (38th, offence 23rd, defence 63rd)
Returning production
8% (pass 4%, rush 4%, receiving 15%)
WVU
Games
4
Plays per game
74.0
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
1.4 (64th, offence 43rd, defence 92nd)
Returning production
14% (pass 62%, rush -4%, receiving 9%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
CIN
WVU
pass rate, all downs
40%122nd
24%135th
pass rate, standard downs
37%104th
15%136th
pass rate, 1st down
40%90th
11%137th
no-huddle share
68%63rd
99%2nd
pass rate, passing downs
47%131st
51%125th
pass rate, red zone
30%107th
11%136th
seconds per play (own drives)
28.380th
24.7129th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
CIN offence
CIN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.363
270
11 of 138
success rate
0.496
270
27 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.305
270
35 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.361
270
4 of 138
rush: success rate
0.497
270
26 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.224
270
8 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.385
270
34 of 138
pass: success rate
0.509
270
26 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.432
270
105 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.560
270
17 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.338
270
53 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.677
270
11 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.132
270
26 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
270
22 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.200
270
8 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.107
270
20 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.096
270
88 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.011
270
2 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.200
270
95 of 138
WVU offence
WVU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.184
296
62 of 138
success rate
0.449
296
60 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.205
296
83 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.152
296
58 of 138
rush: success rate
0.468
296
52 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.936
296
78 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.307
296
55 of 138
pass: success rate
0.400
296
99 of 138
pass: explosiveness
2.226
296
1 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.491
296
73 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
296
60 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.247
296
50 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.135
296
33 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.720
296
88 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.034
296
64 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.111
296
26 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.078
296
49 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.034
296
20 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.600
296
68 of 138
CIN defence
CIN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.102
270
88 of 138
success rate
0.415
270
87 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.205
270
60 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.113
270
102 of 138
rush: success rate
0.482
270
129 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.828
270
33 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.220
270
93 of 138
pass: success rate
0.378
270
51 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.565
270
75 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.462
270
80 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.318
270
105 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.217
270
115 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.179
270
44 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
270
45 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.947
270
108 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
270
74 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.107
270
84 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
270
54 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.500
270
126 of 138
WVU defence
WVU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.124
280
96 of 138
success rate
0.443
280
108 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.181
280
51 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.025
280
46 of 138
rush: success rate
0.391
280
61 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.841
280
37 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.336
280
117 of 138
pass: success rate
0.511
280
134 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.442
280
44 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.520
280
125 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.262
280
52 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.902
280
78 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.203
280
81 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
280
66 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.269
280
63 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.154
280
55 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.114
280
98 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.039
280
16 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.700
280
88 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs