Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ARIZ wins about 72% of the time at a number like ours.
ARIZ
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
10.7 (33rd, offence 32nd, defence 38th)
Returning production
65% (pass 120%, rush 60%, receiving 44%)
WVU
Games
4
Plays per game
74.0
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
1.4 (64th, offence 43rd, defence 92nd)
Returning production
14% (pass 62%, rush -4%, receiving 9%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ARIZ
WVU
pass rate, all downs
56%16th
24%135th
pass rate, standard downs
51%8th
15%136th
pass rate, 1st down
53%14th
11%137th
no-huddle share
34%97th
99%2nd
pass rate, passing downs
68%47th
51%125th
pass rate, red zone
60%5th
11%136th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.558th
24.7129th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ARIZ offence
ARIZ offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.213
280
56 of 138
success rate
0.500
280
22 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.151
280
106 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.147
280
62 of 138
rush: success rate
0.521
280
14 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.696
280
132 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.281
280
61 of 138
pass: success rate
0.493
280
33 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.510
280
80 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.536
280
35 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.419
280
11 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.534
280
17 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.118
280
12 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.850
280
14 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.321
280
46 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.114
280
30 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.075
280
44 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.039
280
30 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.200
280
56 of 138
WVU offence
WVU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.184
296
62 of 138
success rate
0.449
296
60 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.205
296
83 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.152
296
58 of 138
rush: success rate
0.468
296
52 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.936
296
78 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.307
296
55 of 138
pass: success rate
0.400
296
99 of 138
pass: explosiveness
2.226
296
1 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.491
296
73 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
296
60 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.247
296
50 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.135
296
33 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.720
296
88 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.034
296
64 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.111
296
26 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.078
296
49 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.034
296
20 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.600
296
68 of 138
ARIZ defence
ARIZ defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.002
250
50 of 138
success rate
0.352
250
31 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.415
250
127 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.018
250
65 of 138
rush: success rate
0.347
250
33 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.072
250
110 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.053
250
46 of 138
pass: success rate
0.356
250
30 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.601
250
91 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.403
250
32 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.277
250
64 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.589
250
42 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.253
250
125 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
1.000
250
137 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.824
250
35 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.168
250
78 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.108
250
88 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.060
250
64 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.000
250
107 of 138
WVU defence
WVU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.124
280
96 of 138
success rate
0.443
280
108 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.181
280
51 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.025
280
46 of 138
rush: success rate
0.391
280
61 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.841
280
37 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.336
280
117 of 138
pass: success rate
0.511
280
134 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.442
280
44 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.520
280
125 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.262
280
52 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.902
280
78 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.203
280
81 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
280
66 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.269
280
63 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.154
280
55 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.114
280
98 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.039
280
16 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.700
280
88 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs