Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ISU wins about 47% of the time at a number like ours.
WVU
Games
4
Plays per game
74.0
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
1.4 (64th, offence 43rd, defence 92nd)
Returning production
14% (pass 62%, rush -4%, receiving 9%)
ISU
Games
4
Plays per game
60.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
3.4 (58th, offence 86th, defence 39th)
Returning production
2% (pass 3%, rush 5%, receiving 0%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
WVU
ISU
pass rate, all downs
24%135th
41%119th
pass rate, standard downs
15%136th
35%114th
pass rate, 1st down
11%137th
31%122nd
no-huddle share
99%2nd
36%92nd
pass rate, red zone
11%136th
28%116th
pass rate, passing downs
51%125th
53%117th
seconds per play (own drives)
24.7129th
30.436th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
WVU offence
WVU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.184
296
62 of 138
success rate
0.449
296
60 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.205
296
83 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.152
296
58 of 138
rush: success rate
0.468
296
52 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.936
296
78 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.307
296
55 of 138
pass: success rate
0.400
296
99 of 138
pass: explosiveness
2.226
296
1 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.491
296
73 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
296
60 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.247
296
50 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.135
296
33 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.720
296
88 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.034
296
64 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.111
296
26 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.078
296
49 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.034
296
20 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.600
296
68 of 138
ISU offence
ISU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.117
241
87 of 138
success rate
0.382
241
119 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.334
241
25 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.105
241
76 of 138
rush: success rate
0.387
241
114 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.191
241
10 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.205
241
78 of 138
pass: success rate
0.402
241
96 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.546
241
70 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.421
241
127 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.299
241
86 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.993
241
90 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.190
241
92 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.583
241
122 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.636
241
29 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.170
241
109 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.083
241
57 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.087
241
133 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.100
241
60 of 138
WVU defence
WVU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.124
280
96 of 138
success rate
0.443
280
108 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.181
280
51 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.025
280
46 of 138
rush: success rate
0.391
280
61 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.841
280
37 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.336
280
117 of 138
pass: success rate
0.511
280
134 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.442
280
44 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.520
280
125 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.262
280
52 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.902
280
78 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.203
280
81 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
280
66 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.269
280
63 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.154
280
55 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.114
280
98 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.039
280
16 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.700
280
88 of 138
ISU defence
ISU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.038
243
35 of 138
success rate
0.370
243
51 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.093
243
25 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.082
243
31 of 138
rush: success rate
0.374
243
49 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.864
243
44 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.069
243
52 of 138
pass: success rate
0.362
243
34 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.439
243
41 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.467
243
85 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.158
243
1 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.576
243
40 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.198
243
75 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.700
243
59 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.048
243
6 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.177
243
86 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.128
243
115 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.049
243
38 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.800
243
32 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs