Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). HOU wins about 89% of the time at a number like ours.
UCF
Games
4
Plays per game
56.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
8.7 (40th, offence 65th, defence 23rd)
Returning production
25% (pass 4%, rush -17%, receiving 58%)
HOU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
12.1 (29th, offence 15th, defence 53rd)
Returning production
81% (pass 92%, rush 523%, receiving 61%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UCF
HOU
pass rate, all downs
43%106th
42%116th
pass rate, standard downs
38%97th
39%88th
pass rate, 1st down
43%68th
38%101st
no-huddle share
73%56th
85%31st
pass rate, passing downs
55%112th
52%123rd
pass rate, red zone
24%123rd
31%105th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.754th
28.972nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UCF offence
UCF offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.119
227
85 of 138
success rate
0.436
227
76 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.206
227
81 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.180
227
46 of 138
rush: success rate
0.445
227
74 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.165
227
12 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.053
227
113 of 138
pass: success rate
0.426
227
79 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.278
227
130 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
227
67 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.299
227
87 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.052
227
80 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.172
227
78 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
227
41 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.769
227
21 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
227
65 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.097
227
92 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.040
227
34 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
63.200
227
136 of 138
HOU offence
HOU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.439
280
3 of 138
success rate
0.579
280
2 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.123
280
118 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.307
280
13 of 138
rush: success rate
0.578
280
2 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.796
280
112 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.639
280
5 of 138
pass: success rate
0.593
280
3 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.580
280
63 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.581
280
7 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.569
280
1 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.904
280
3 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.099
280
5 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.857
280
13 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.129
280
11 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.100
280
15 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.057
280
16 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.043
280
45 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.300
280
129 of 138
UCF defence
UCF defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.047
289
32 of 138
success rate
0.343
289
25 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.275
289
91 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.119
289
23 of 138
rush: success rate
0.307
289
14 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.872
289
50 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.077
289
56 of 138
pass: success rate
0.385
289
60 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.595
289
87 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.400
289
31 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.248
289
39 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.291
289
13 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.241
289
114 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.625
289
34 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.304
289
14 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.173
289
82 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.111
289
92 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
289
73 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.500
289
81 of 138
HOU defence
HOU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.099
246
85 of 138
success rate
0.394
246
70 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.360
246
112 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.095
246
28 of 138
rush: success rate
0.347
246
34 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.839
246
35 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.303
246
112 of 138
pass: success rate
0.443
246
106 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.651
246
101 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.451
246
73 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.280
246
68 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.318
246
15 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.214
246
94 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.643
246
38 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.812
246
130 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.211
246
126 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.098
246
68 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.114
246
137 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.500
246
127 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs