Betting
Spread
BYU favouredMarket BYU −6.5Ours BYU −7
TCU favouredgap 0.5 toward BYU
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| BYU away | -6.5 | 27.0 | -230 | 66.9% | 68% |
| TCU home | +6.5 | 20.5 | +190 | 33.1% | 33% |
| Total | 47.5 | |
BYU -6.5 when first seen, now BYU -6.5 · total 52.5 then, 47.5 now. Over -115 / under -105 · DraftKings, 2026-10-02 06:00 UTC.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| BYU away | -7.0 | 27.2 | 68.0% | -0.5 |
| TCU home | +7.0 | 20.3 | 32.0% | +0.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| BYU away | -8.5 | 29.1 | 72.4% | -2.0 |
| TCU home | +8.5 | 20.5 | 27.6% | +2.0 |
| Total | 49.6 | | | +2.1 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | BYU | TCU |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +4.630th | +1.549th |
| Defence (cards) | +2.120th | +0.261st |
| Card team rating | +6.826th | +1.749th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +16.317th | +8.242nd |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.814th | +0.250th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +1.216th | +0.549th |
| Card line | TCU +7.0 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 79% | 22% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Bear Bachmeier BYU84 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.561
Completion71.0%
TD–INT6-1
Pass attempts, median game20
Pass yards, median game217
Rush yards, median game30
Games this season3
Team throws per game21.7
Jaden Craig TCU80 ▲1 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.255
Completion68.2%
TD–INT7-3
Pass attempts, median game32
Pass yards, median game324
Rush yards, median game2
Games this season4
Team throws per game33.2
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| BYU away | 3-0 | 100% | +3.5 | 2-1 | +4.5 |
| TCU home | 2-2 | 50% | -1.8 | 1-3 | -10.3 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| BYU | favourite | covered 6 straight — next game covered 47.5% of the time (1464 cases) |
| BYU | favourite | won 11 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| BYU | away favourite | won 8 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (5637 cases) |
Streak picker (spread): bets TCU — BYU has covered 6 straight as favourite.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Amon G. Carter Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| BYU | A. Gentry OG | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Gentry is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and is unlikely to to face the Frogs on Saturday. |
| BYU | S. Esera LB | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Esera is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to face the Frogs on Saturday. |
| BYU | B. Laga K | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Laga has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against Horned-frogs on Saturday. |
| BYU | R. Saleapaga II TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Saleapaga is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against Frogs on Friday, October 2nd. |
| BYU | S. Moa RB | out Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Moa is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return. |
| BYU | J. Nye TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Nye is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against Frogs on Friday, October 2nd. |
| BYU | R. Damuni S | out Lower Body | Mon, Sep 7 | Damuni is out of commission due to a lower body injury, and he will miss an extended period. |
| TCU | M. Short LB | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Short is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return. |
| TCU | J. Pitchford RB | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Pitchford has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against Cougars on Saturday. |
| TCU | K. Lemmermann K | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Lemmermann is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Cougars on Saturday. |
| TCU | J. Dwyer WR | out Foot | Fri, Sep 11 | Dwyer is dealing with a foot injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time. |