Betting
Spread
UTAH favouredMarket UTAH −7.5Ours UTAH −10.5
ISU favouredgap 3 toward UTAH
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| UTAH away | -7.5 | 27.0 | -325 | 73.4% | 75% |
| ISU home | +7.5 | 19.5 | +260 | 26.6% | 26% |
| Total | 46.5 | |
UTAH -7.5 when first seen, now UTAH -7.5 · total 49.5 then, 46.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| UTAH away | -10.5 | 28.5 | 74.8% | -3.0 |
| ISU home | +10.5 | 18.0 | 25.2% | +3.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| UTAH away | -11.5 | 31.4 | 78.1% | -4.0 |
| ISU home | +11.5 | 19.9 | 21.9% | +4.0 |
| Total | 51.3 | | | +4.8 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | UTAH | ISU |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +6.417th | +0.457th |
| Defence (cards) | +0.651st | -0.573rd |
| Card team rating | +6.925th | -0.063rd |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +21.59th | +3.458th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +1.34th | +0.624th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +1.87th | +0.644th |
| Card line | ISU +10.5 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 68% | 2% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Devon Dampier UTAH89 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.435
Completion70.3%
TD–INT9-1
Pass attempts, median game26
Pass yards, median game230
Rush yards, median game33
Games this season4
Team throws per game29.5
Jaylen Raynor ISU80 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.208
Completion54.3%
TD–INT5-3
Pass attempts, median game18
Pass yards, median game159
Rush yards, median game30
Games this season4
Team throws per game23.5
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| UTAH away | 4-0 | 100% | +11.5 | 2-2 | -1.0 |
| ISU home | 2-2 | 50% | +7.1 | 2-2 | +0.5 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Jack Trice Stadium · grass · 902 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 68°F, wind 13 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | UTAH 7 days · ISU 7 days |
| Travel | UTAH 946 miles, body clock 1:30pm at kickoff, -3729 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| UTAH | M. Carvalho WR | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Carvalho is nursing an Undisclosed, and it has yet to be determined if he will be available against Iowa State on Saturday. |
| ISU | C. Crawford DL | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Crawford is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to face the West Virginia on Saturday. |
| ISU | C. Pabst WR | out Knee | Thu, Oct 1 | Pabst is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to face the West Virginia on Saturday. |
| ISU | J. Singletary CB | out Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 25 | Singletary is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time. |
| ISU | E. Miller RB | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Miller is dealing with a Undisclosed injury, but he is expected to suit up against the Utah on Saturday. |
| ISU | L. Galer TE | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Galer is dealing with an Undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Utah on Saturday. |
| ISU | T. Claiborne WR | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Claiborne is dealing with an Undisclosed, and it is unclear if he will play against Utah on Saturday. |
| ISU | R. Peppers RB | questionable Undisclosed | Tue, Sep 22 | Peppers is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established if he will face the Utes on Saturday. |
| ISU | J. Bailey WR | out Undisclosed | Tue, Sep 1 | Bailey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear when he will return. |