Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). BYU wins about 52% of the time at a number like ours.
ARIZ
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
10.7 (33rd, offence 32nd, defence 38th)
Returning production
65% (pass 120%, rush 60%, receiving 44%)
BYU
Games
3
Plays per game
62.3
Drives per game
11.3
SP+
16.3 (17th, offence 24th, defence 21st)
Returning production
79% (pass 100%, rush 97%, receiving 51%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ARIZ
BYU
pass rate, all downs
56%16th
37%129th
pass rate, standard downs
51%8th
33%122nd
pass rate, 1st down
53%14th
34%115th
no-huddle share
34%97th
2%138th
pass rate, passing downs
68%47th
53%121st
pass rate, red zone
60%5th
29%113th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.558th
32.411th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ARIZ offence
ARIZ offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.213
280
56 of 138
success rate
0.500
280
22 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.151
280
106 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.147
280
62 of 138
rush: success rate
0.521
280
14 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.696
280
132 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.281
280
61 of 138
pass: success rate
0.493
280
33 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.510
280
80 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.536
280
35 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.419
280
11 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.534
280
17 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.118
280
12 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.850
280
14 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.321
280
46 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.114
280
30 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.075
280
44 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.039
280
30 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.200
280
56 of 138
BYU offence
BYU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.448
187
1 of 138
success rate
0.599
187
1 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.157
187
103 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.479
187
1 of 138
rush: success rate
0.617
187
1 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.053
187
35 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.380
187
37 of 138
pass: success rate
0.567
187
9 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.317
187
125 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.664
187
1 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.342
187
49 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.952
187
2 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.122
187
18 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.941
187
4 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.435
187
3 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.059
187
2 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.016
187
1 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.043
187
44 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.400
187
102 of 138
ARIZ defence
ARIZ defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.002
250
50 of 138
success rate
0.352
250
31 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.415
250
127 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.018
250
65 of 138
rush: success rate
0.347
250
33 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.072
250
110 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.053
250
46 of 138
pass: success rate
0.356
250
30 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.601
250
91 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.403
250
32 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.277
250
64 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.589
250
42 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.253
250
125 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
1.000
250
137 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.824
250
35 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.168
250
78 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.108
250
88 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.060
250
64 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.000
250
107 of 138
BYU defence
BYU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.061
187
28 of 138
success rate
0.369
187
48 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.182
187
52 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.069
187
34 of 138
rush: success rate
0.355
187
36 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.894
187
62 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.024
187
34 of 138
pass: success rate
0.390
187
66 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.383
187
27 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.387
187
20 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.333
187
113 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.411
187
25 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.224
187
106 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.769
187
95 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.750
187
97 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.171
187
80 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.091
187
57 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.080
187
115 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.800
187
90 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs