Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ARIZ wins about 86% of the time at a number like ours.
ARIZ
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
10.7 (33rd, offence 32nd, defence 38th)
Returning production
65% (pass 120%, rush 60%, receiving 44%)
WSU
Games
4
Plays per game
61.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-9.3 (105th, offence 120th, defence 79th)
Returning production
91% (pass 100%, rush 100%, receiving 85%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ARIZ
WSU
pass rate, all downs
56%16th
49%60th
pass rate, standard downs
51%8th
42%61st
pass rate, 1st down
53%14th
40%92nd
no-huddle share
34%97th
10%123rd
pass rate, passing downs
68%47th
63%69th
pass rate, red zone
60%5th
41%56th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.558th
29.070th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ARIZ offence
ARIZ offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.213
280
56 of 138
success rate
0.500
280
22 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.151
280
106 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.147
280
62 of 138
rush: success rate
0.521
280
14 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.696
280
132 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.281
280
61 of 138
pass: success rate
0.493
280
33 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.510
280
80 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.536
280
35 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.419
280
11 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.534
280
17 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.118
280
12 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.850
280
14 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.321
280
46 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.114
280
30 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.075
280
44 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.039
280
30 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.200
280
56 of 138
WSU offence
WSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.037
244
128 of 138
success rate
0.365
244
125 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.265
244
54 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.008
244
112 of 138
rush: success rate
0.355
244
129 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.200
244
9 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.045
244
132 of 138
pass: success rate
0.383
244
110 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.333
244
123 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.431
244
125 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.238
244
121 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.759
244
116 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.234
244
127 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.600
244
121 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.235
244
111 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.205
244
135 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.127
244
129 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.078
244
123 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.800
244
21 of 138
ARIZ defence
ARIZ defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.002
250
50 of 138
success rate
0.352
250
31 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.415
250
127 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.018
250
65 of 138
rush: success rate
0.347
250
33 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.072
250
110 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.053
250
46 of 138
pass: success rate
0.356
250
30 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.601
250
91 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.403
250
32 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.277
250
64 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.589
250
42 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.253
250
125 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
1.000
250
137 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.824
250
35 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.168
250
78 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.108
250
88 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.060
250
64 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.000
250
107 of 138
WSU defence
WSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.023
269
65 of 138
success rate
0.405
269
80 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.252
269
83 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.105
269
95 of 138
rush: success rate
0.433
269
97 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.974
269
90 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.086
269
59 of 138
pass: success rate
0.386
269
62 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.624
269
95 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.464
269
83 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.284
269
75 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.955
269
89 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.179
269
46 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.786
269
104 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.036
269
52 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.126
269
18 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.074
269
26 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.052
269
44 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.300
269
54 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs