Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UTAH wins about 95% of the time at a number like ours.
USU
Games
4
Plays per game
65.8
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-9.3 (105th, offence 121st, defence 78th)
Returning production
65% (pass 87%, rush 74%, receiving 49%)
UTAH
Games
4
Plays per game
68.5
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
21.5 (9th, offence 13th, defence 11th)
Returning production
68% (pass 97%, rush 83%, receiving 29%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
USU
UTAH
pass rate, all downs
54%24th
45%94th
pass rate, standard downs
51%9th
42%70th
pass rate, 1st down
54%9th
45%55th
no-huddle share
91%20th
94%15th
pass rate, passing downs
60%90th
55%110th
pass rate, red zone
37%75th
31%104th
seconds per play (own drives)
24.7130th
28.479th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
USU offence
USU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.071
263
132 of 138
success rate
0.361
263
128 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.315
263
32 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.103
263
132 of 138
rush: success rate
0.358
263
126 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.853
263
99 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.032
263
130 of 138
pass: success rate
0.358
263
125 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.738
263
28 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.363
263
137 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.358
263
41 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.074
263
77 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.208
263
110 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.300
263
138 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.810
263
135 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
263
125 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.091
263
78 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.091
263
136 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.100
263
97 of 138
UTAH offence
UTAH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.328
274
15 of 138
success rate
0.507
274
19 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.321
274
30 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.285
274
17 of 138
rush: success rate
0.490
274
32 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.167
274
11 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.397
274
31 of 138
pass: success rate
0.529
274
15 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.517
274
77 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.534
274
37 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.424
274
10 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.479
274
23 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.195
274
97 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.739
274
76 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.969
274
16 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.128
274
46 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.088
274
74 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.040
274
35 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.500
274
127 of 138
USU defence
USU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.021
296
62 of 138
success rate
0.405
296
79 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.133
296
35 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.008
296
62 of 138
rush: success rate
0.408
296
73 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.006
296
93 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.044
296
43 of 138
pass: success rate
0.404
296
73 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.221
296
5 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.460
296
79 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.292
296
83 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.602
296
43 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.216
296
97 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.737
296
80 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.037
296
53 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.135
296
32 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.071
296
21 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
296
82 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.600
296
113 of 138
UTAH defence
UTAH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.074
270
24 of 138
success rate
0.319
270
11 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.337
270
108 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.092
270
30 of 138
rush: success rate
0.324
270
23 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.944
270
79 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.083
270
14 of 138
pass: success rate
0.310
270
13 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.606
270
92 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.340
270
5 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.291
270
82 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.632
270
50 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.204
270
82 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
270
10 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.278
270
12 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.204
270
123 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.085
270
46 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.119
270
138 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.800
270
119 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs