Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UCF wins about 73% of the time at a number like ours.
GAST
Games
4
Plays per game
71.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-11.2 (111th, offence 85th, defence 125th)
Returning production
47% (pass 64%, rush 127%, receiving 28%)
UCF
Games
4
Plays per game
56.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
8.7 (40th, offence 65th, defence 23rd)
Returning production
25% (pass 4%, rush -17%, receiving 58%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
GAST
UCF
pass rate, all downs
46%88th
43%106th
pass rate, standard downs
41%77th
38%97th
pass rate, 1st down
43%70th
43%68th
no-huddle share
85%35th
73%56th
pass rate, passing downs
61%84th
55%112th
pass rate, red zone
30%109th
24%123rd
seconds per play (own drives)
29.462nd
29.754th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
GAST offence
GAST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.251
286
39 of 138
success rate
0.479
286
39 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.296
286
43 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.184
286
43 of 138
rush: success rate
0.444
286
77 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.019
286
50 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.389
286
33 of 138
pass: success rate
0.520
286
21 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.560
286
67 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.491
286
72 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.444
286
6 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.301
286
40 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.176
286
82 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.632
286
114 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.345
286
44 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.105
286
18 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.052
286
13 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.052
286
64 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.700
286
86 of 138
UCF offence
UCF offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.119
227
85 of 138
success rate
0.436
227
76 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.206
227
81 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.180
227
46 of 138
rush: success rate
0.445
227
74 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.165
227
12 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.053
227
113 of 138
pass: success rate
0.426
227
79 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.278
227
130 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
227
67 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.299
227
87 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.052
227
80 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.172
227
78 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
227
41 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.769
227
21 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
227
65 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.097
227
92 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.040
227
34 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
63.200
227
136 of 138
GAST defence
GAST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.024
242
66 of 138
success rate
0.380
242
59 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.294
242
94 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.174
242
121 of 138
rush: success rate
0.409
242
74 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.187
242
132 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.057
242
18 of 138
pass: success rate
0.365
242
40 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.383
242
28 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.449
242
70 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.256
242
46 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.091
242
107 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.209
242
87 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
1.000
242
138 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.227
242
59 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.178
242
88 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.116
242
101 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
242
69 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.400
242
39 of 138
UCF defence
UCF defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.047
289
32 of 138
success rate
0.343
289
25 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.275
289
91 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.119
289
23 of 138
rush: success rate
0.307
289
14 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.872
289
50 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.077
289
56 of 138
pass: success rate
0.385
289
60 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.595
289
87 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.400
289
31 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.248
289
39 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.291
289
13 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.241
289
114 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.625
289
34 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.304
289
14 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.173
289
82 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.111
289
92 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
289
73 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.500
289
81 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs