Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). NU wins about 64% of the time at a number like ours.
COLO
Games
4
Plays per game
73.5
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
-3.3 (82nd, offence 99th, defence 59th)
Returning production
14% (pass -26%, rush -37%, receiving 39%)
NU
Games
3
Plays per game
62.7
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
7.3 (50th, offence 59th, defence 34th)
Returning production
89% (pass 94%, rush 88%, receiving 86%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
COLO
NU
pass rate, all downs
50%55th
45%92nd
pass rate, passing downs
56%106th
47%132nd
no-huddle share
98%5th
11%120th
pass rate, standard downs
47%30th
44%45th
pass rate, 1st down
53%11th
49%23rd
pass rate, red zone
32%98th
48%24th
seconds per play (own drives)
24.9128th
30.826th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
COLO offence
COLO offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.059
294
104 of 138
success rate
0.398
294
110 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.202
294
85 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.019
294
119 of 138
rush: success rate
0.404
294
101 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.852
294
100 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.113
294
106 of 138
pass: success rate
0.386
294
104 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.606
294
54 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.439
294
119 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
294
70 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.133
294
68 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.144
294
41 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.619
294
117 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.217
294
134 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.184
294
126 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.122
294
127 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
294
85 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.100
294
14 of 138
NU offence
NU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.304
188
21 of 138
success rate
0.463
188
49 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.294
188
45 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.156
188
54 of 138
rush: success rate
0.410
188
98 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.978
188
65 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.540
188
13 of 138
pass: success rate
0.537
188
13 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.649
188
46 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.485
188
78 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.411
188
14 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.835
188
104 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.190
188
93 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
188
29 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.111
188
12 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
188
56 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.112
188
117 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.021
188
4 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.400
188
41 of 138
COLO defence
COLO defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.007
283
54 of 138
success rate
0.382
283
61 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.207
283
62 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.135
283
20 of 138
rush: success rate
0.410
283
75 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.675
283
12 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.225
283
94 of 138
pass: success rate
0.365
283
39 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.830
283
127 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.415
283
42 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.320
283
107 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.370
283
23 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.317
283
136 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.647
283
39 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.935
283
44 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.201
283
118 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.138
283
123 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
283
78 of 138
opponent average starting field position
67.400
283
9 of 138
NU defence
NU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.083
222
80 of 138
success rate
0.441
222
106 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.120
222
32 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.112
222
100 of 138
rush: success rate
0.472
222
124 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.868
222
46 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.035
222
38 of 138
pass: success rate
0.405
222
74 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.406
222
33 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.515
222
123 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.228
222
27 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.429
222
131 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.142
222
17 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.591
222
22 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.421
222
17 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.162
222
72 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.063
222
7 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.099
222
131 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
222
67 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs