Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). BYU wins about 91% of the time at a number like ours.
BYU
Games
3
Plays per game
62.3
Drives per game
11.3
SP+
16.3 (17th, offence 24th, defence 21st)
Returning production
79% (pass 100%, rush 97%, receiving 51%)
CSU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.8
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
-7.3 (97th, offence 70th, defence 116th)
Returning production
40% (pass 23%, rush -28%, receiving 58%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
BYU
CSU
pass rate, all downs
37%129th
58%11th
pass rate, standard downs
33%122nd
51%10th
pass rate, 1st down
34%115th
49%25th
no-huddle share
2%138th
80%46th
pass rate, passing downs
53%121st
73%25th
pass rate, red zone
29%113th
42%52nd
seconds per play (own drives)
32.411th
26.2119th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
BYU offence
BYU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.448
187
1 of 138
success rate
0.599
187
1 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.157
187
103 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.479
187
1 of 138
rush: success rate
0.617
187
1 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.053
187
35 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.380
187
37 of 138
pass: success rate
0.567
187
9 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.317
187
125 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.664
187
1 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.342
187
49 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.952
187
2 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.122
187
18 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.941
187
4 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.435
187
3 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.059
187
2 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.016
187
1 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.043
187
44 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.400
187
102 of 138
CSU offence
CSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.270
283
33 of 138
success rate
0.438
283
72 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.512
283
4 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.287
283
15 of 138
rush: success rate
0.429
283
87 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.344
283
2 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.309
283
54 of 138
pass: success rate
0.449
283
61 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.663
283
42 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.472
283
93 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.357
283
42 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.616
283
125 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.202
283
105 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
283
36 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.875
283
19 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.155
283
87 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.081
283
53 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.074
283
115 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.600
283
101 of 138
BYU defence
BYU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.061
187
28 of 138
success rate
0.369
187
48 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.182
187
52 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.069
187
34 of 138
rush: success rate
0.355
187
36 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.894
187
62 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.024
187
34 of 138
pass: success rate
0.390
187
66 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.383
187
27 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.387
187
20 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.333
187
113 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.411
187
25 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.224
187
106 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.769
187
95 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.750
187
97 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.171
187
80 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.091
187
57 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.080
187
115 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.800
187
90 of 138
CSU defence
CSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.163
253
112 of 138
success rate
0.462
253
124 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.198
253
56 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.229
253
130 of 138
rush: success rate
0.487
253
130 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.927
253
76 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.273
253
103 of 138
pass: success rate
0.467
253
117 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.664
253
103 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.522
253
127 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.310
253
96 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.395
253
129 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.158
253
29 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
253
131 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.037
253
114 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.182
253
95 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.107
253
85 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.075
253
102 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.500
253
57 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs