Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ORE wins about 48% of the time at a number like ours.
ORE
Games
4
Plays per game
72.2
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
21.6 (8th, offence 5th, defence 25th)
Returning production
75% (pass 95%, rush 68%, receiving 64%)
OKST
Games
4
Plays per game
80.0
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
10.2 (34th, offence 33rd, defence 42nd)
Returning production
0% (pass 0%, rush 0%, receiving 0%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ORE
OKST
pass rate, all downs
54%25th
48%66th
pass rate, standard downs
45%42nd
46%40th
no-huddle share
38%91st
97%9th
pass rate, 1st down
46%45th
45%56th
pass rate, passing downs
76%15th
56%104th
pass rate, red zone
38%69th
46%32nd
seconds per play (own drives)
26.8104th
26.6109th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ORE offence
ORE offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.328
289
14 of 138
success rate
0.478
289
41 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.414
289
16 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.225
289
33 of 138
rush: success rate
0.473
289
47 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.001
289
56 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.414
289
28 of 138
pass: success rate
0.480
289
43 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.777
289
22 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.515
289
48 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.388
289
22 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.360
289
32 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.122
289
19 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.810
289
32 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.029
289
15 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.107
289
21 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.069
289
30 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
289
26 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.200
289
108 of 138
OKST offence
OKST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.161
320
68 of 138
success rate
0.491
320
31 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.108
320
125 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.071
320
87 of 138
rush: success rate
0.472
320
48 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.731
320
127 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.333
320
50 of 138
pass: success rate
0.524
320
19 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.503
320
82 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.553
320
25 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.313
320
68 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.226
320
55 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.172
320
77 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.640
320
113 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.750
320
78 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.091
320
11 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.044
320
5 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.047
320
55 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.600
320
49 of 138
ORE defence
ORE defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.003
268
49 of 138
success rate
0.373
268
57 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.239
268
77 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.041
268
75 of 138
rush: success rate
0.378
268
53 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.901
268
67 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.036
268
39 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
268
54 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.540
268
66 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.410
268
36 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.294
268
84 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.685
268
55 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.185
268
54 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
268
85 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.333
268
67 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
268
60 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.049
268
1 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.108
268
136 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.100
268
70 of 138
OKST defence
OKST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.030
252
37 of 138
success rate
0.373
252
56 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.158
252
44 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.040
252
73 of 138
rush: success rate
0.424
252
85 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.927
252
77 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.136
252
8 of 138
pass: success rate
0.301
252
9 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.639
252
96 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.456
252
78 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.198
252
8 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.082
252
105 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.167
252
34 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.611
252
28 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
252
48 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
252
75 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.083
252
44 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.079
252
113 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.400
252
56 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs