Betting
Spread
ORST favouredMarket HOU −21Ours HOU −20.6
HOU favouredgap 0.4 toward ORST
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| ORST away | +21.0 | 14.8 | +850 | 10.1% | — |
| HOU home | -21.0 | 35.8 | -1450 | 89.9% | — |
| Total | 50.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| ORST away | +20.5 | 14.9 | 9.9% | -0.5 |
| HOU home | -20.5 | 35.6 | 90.1% | +0.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| ORST away | +12.5 | 19.3 | 19.6% | -8.5 |
| HOU home | -12.5 | 32.0 | 80.4% | +8.5 |
| Total | 51.2 | | | +0.7 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | ORST | HOU |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -0.668th | +7.612th |
| Defence (cards) | -0.780th | +0.848th |
| Card team rating | -1.368th | +8.417th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +1.265th | +12.129th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.277th | +0.248th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.171st | +0.739th |
| Card line | HOU -20.6 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 58% | 81% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Braden Atkinson ORST79 ▲10 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.460
Completion65.0%
TD–INT11-2
Pass attempts, median game41
Pass yards, median game355
Rush yards, median game-5
Games this season4
Team throws per game42.5
Conner Weigman HOU87 ▲1 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.593
Completion71.6%
TD–INT11-1
Pass attempts, median game26
Pass yards, median game261
Rush yards, median game22
Games this season4
Team throws per game27.5
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| ORST away | 4-0 | 100% | +13.6 | 3-1 | +1.5 |
| HOU home | 2-2 | 50% | +3.4 | 4-0 | +9.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (TDECU Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| HOU | E. Noel K | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Noel has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against Knights on Saturday. |
| HOU | J. Strozier Jr. WR | out Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 16 | Strozier is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, not expected to play on Friday against the Texas Tech. |
| HOU | J. Ridgle RB | questionable Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 16 | Ridgle is dealing with undisclosed injury, it is unclear if he will play Friday against the Texas. |
| HOU | M. Tounkara WR | out Foot | Tue, Aug 11 | Tounkara is nursing with a foot injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date. |
| HOU | L. McGary TE | out Shoulder | Tue, Aug 11 | McGary has been sidelined due to shoulder injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time. |