Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). GT wins about 52% of the time at a number like ours.
COLO
Games
4
Plays per game
73.5
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
-3.3 (82nd, offence 99th, defence 59th)
Returning production
14% (pass -26%, rush -37%, receiving 39%)
GT
Games
4
Plays per game
65.0
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
-0.1 (69th, offence 66th, defence 76th)
Returning production
13% (pass 0%, rush 35%, receiving 11%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
COLO
GT
pass rate, all downs
50%55th
53%34th
pass rate, passing downs
56%106th
71%33rd
no-huddle share
98%5th
33%98th
pass rate, standard downs
47%30th
44%47th
pass rate, 1st down
53%11th
42%78th
pass rate, red zone
32%98th
48%26th
seconds per play (own drives)
24.9128th
28.875th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
COLO offence
COLO offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.059
294
104 of 138
success rate
0.398
294
110 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.202
294
85 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.019
294
119 of 138
rush: success rate
0.404
294
101 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.852
294
100 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.113
294
106 of 138
pass: success rate
0.386
294
104 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.606
294
54 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.439
294
119 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
294
70 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.133
294
68 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.144
294
41 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.619
294
117 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.217
294
134 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.184
294
126 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.122
294
127 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
294
85 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.100
294
14 of 138
GT offence
GT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.141
260
76 of 138
success rate
0.442
260
68 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.221
260
71 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.112
260
73 of 138
rush: success rate
0.452
260
67 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.885
260
87 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.191
260
84 of 138
pass: success rate
0.443
260
68 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.513
260
78 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
260
60 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
260
71 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.074
260
76 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.202
260
106 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
260
93 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.393
260
101 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.162
260
95 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.104
260
105 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.058
260
77 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.600
260
66 of 138
COLO defence
COLO defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.007
283
54 of 138
success rate
0.382
283
61 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.207
283
62 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.135
283
20 of 138
rush: success rate
0.410
283
75 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.675
283
12 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.225
283
94 of 138
pass: success rate
0.365
283
39 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.830
283
127 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.415
283
42 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.320
283
107 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.370
283
23 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.317
283
136 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.647
283
39 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.935
283
44 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.201
283
118 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.138
283
123 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
283
78 of 138
opponent average starting field position
67.400
283
9 of 138
GT defence
GT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.155
281
105 of 138
success rate
0.413
281
85 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.267
281
87 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.082
281
91 of 138
rush: success rate
0.447
281
107 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.865
281
45 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.343
281
121 of 138
pass: success rate
0.366
281
41 of 138
pass: explosiveness
2.089
281
138 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.447
281
68 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.341
281
115 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.906
281
80 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.171
281
38 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.684
281
54 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.654
281
91 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.160
281
68 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.121
281
110 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.039
281
15 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.400
281
40 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs