Betting
Spread
COLO favouredMarket GT −6.5Ours GT −1.5
GT favouredgap 5 toward COLO
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| COLO away | +6.5 | 23.5 | +195 | 32.5% | — |
| GT home | -6.5 | 30.0 | -238 | 67.5% | — |
| Total | 53.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| COLO away | +1.5 | 26.0 | 45.3% | -5.0 |
| GT home | -1.5 | 27.5 | 54.7% | +5.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| COLO away | +9.5 | 21.5 | 25.6% | +3.0 |
| GT home | -9.5 | 31.1 | 74.4% | -3.0 |
| Total | 52.6 | | | -0.9 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | COLO | GT |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -3.192nd | -1.678th |
| Defence (cards) | +1.628th | -0.470th |
| Card team rating | -1.572nd | -2.076th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -3.382nd | -0.169th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.282nd | -0.067th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.381st | -0.068th |
| Card line | GT -1.5 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 14% | 13% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Isaac Wilson COLO71 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play-0.013
Completion51.9%
TD–INT1-0
Pass attempts, median game14
Pass yards, median game77
Rush yards, median game-6
Games this season2
Team throws per game33.2
Alberto Mendoza GT78 ▲2 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.249
Completion68.3%
TD–INT6-3
Pass attempts, median game31
Pass yards, median game243
Rush yards, median game-11
Games this season4
Team throws per game31.0
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| COLO away | 1-3 | 25% | -8.0 | 2-2 | -7.3 |
| GT home | 0-4 | 0% | -7.9 | 2-2 | -1.0 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Bobby Dodd Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| COLO | Q. Gibson WR | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Gibson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against the Red-raiders on Saturday. |
| COLO | Z. Atkins TE | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Atkins is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Red Raiders on Saturday. |
| COLO | C. Williams TE | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Williams is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Red Raiders on Saturday. |
| COLO | D. Scudero WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Scudero is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to face the Red Raiders on Saturday. |
| COLO | D. Henderson II RB | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Henderson II is managing with an undisclosed injury , but it is expected to play against Red Raiders on Saturday. |
| COLO | D. Moore Jr. WR | questionable Lower Body | Sat, Sep 26 | Moore Jr exited the game with a lower body injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against the Red Raiders on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| GT | S. Jones DL | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Jones is out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to face the Stanford on Saturday. |
| GT | A. Hoffler DL | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Hoffler is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to face the Stanford on Saturday. |
| GT | E. Mackenny OG | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | MacKenny is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to play against the Stanford on Saturday. |
| GT | S. Riley S | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Riley has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be available against the Stanford on Saturday. |
| GT | J. Walker DL | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Walker is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be active against the Stanford on Saturday. |
| GT | C. Jean-Noel WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Jean-Noel has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be active against the Stanford on Saturday. |
| GT | M. Hosley RB | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Richardson is battling with a Undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Stanford on Saturday. |
| GT | K. Roche Jr. TE | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Roche is dealing with a Undisclosed injury, but he is expected to suit up against the Wake Stanford on Saturday. |
| GT | D. Collins WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Plummer is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Mercer on Saturday, September 19th. |