Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TENN wins about 53% of the time at a number like ours.
TENN
Games
4
Plays per game
71.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
17.7 (14th, offence 14th, defence 26th)
Returning production
35% (pass 7%, rush 48%, receiving 52%)
VAN
Games
4
Plays per game
68.0
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
7.5 (48th, offence 46th, defence 45th)
Returning production
35% (pass 9%, rush 50%, receiving 50%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TENN
VAN
pass rate, all downs
42%114th
50%54th
pass rate, standard downs
41%79th
43%57th
pass rate, 1st down
41%88th
49%31st
no-huddle share
83%40th
51%82nd
pass rate, passing downs
45%134th
68%50th
pass rate, red zone
31%103rd
39%67th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.495th
29.950th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TENN offence
TENN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.224
287
52 of 138
success rate
0.456
287
54 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.208
287
78 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.311
287
12 of 138
rush: success rate
0.485
287
37 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.113
287
20 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.172
287
90 of 138
pass: success rate
0.431
287
76 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.361
287
119 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.517
287
45 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.300
287
84 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.540
287
16 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.138
287
36 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
287
24 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.308
287
5 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.143
287
73 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.101
287
101 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
287
41 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.600
287
67 of 138
VAN offence
VAN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.082
272
101 of 138
success rate
0.415
272
98 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.180
272
93 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.161
272
52 of 138
rush: success rate
0.421
272
93 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.058
272
34 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.202
272
81 of 138
pass: success rate
0.449
272
64 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.301
272
127 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.479
272
85 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.263
272
110 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.050
272
81 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.150
272
48 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.773
272
55 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.120
272
116 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.129
272
48 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
272
66 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.044
272
49 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.800
272
84 of 138
TENN defence
TENN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.086
257
22 of 138
success rate
0.358
257
39 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.064
257
18 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.081
257
90 of 138
rush: success rate
0.365
257
42 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.026
257
99 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.144
257
6 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
257
55 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.095
257
1 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.406
257
34 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.272
257
58 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.031
257
99 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.191
257
64 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
257
88 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.227
257
11 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.218
257
129 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.148
257
129 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.070
257
97 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.200
257
73 of 138
VAN defence
VAN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.039
254
34 of 138
success rate
0.350
254
30 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.336
254
107 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.019
254
49 of 138
rush: success rate
0.383
254
55 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.022
254
97 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.011
254
32 of 138
pass: success rate
0.336
254
20 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.671
254
104 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.421
254
48 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.245
254
35 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.539
254
34 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.200
254
78 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.789
254
105 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.905
254
43 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.185
254
106 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.110
254
91 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.075
254
104 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.100
254
120 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs