Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). OU wins about 58% of the time at a number like ours.
OU
Games
4
Plays per game
63.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
12.8 (27th, offence 75th, defence 5th)
Returning production
63% (pass 92%, rush 122%, receiving 42%)
MIZ
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
13.7 (25th, offence 40th, defence 14th)
Returning production
42% (pass -2%, rush 78%, receiving 33%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
OU
MIZ
pass rate, all downs
48%68th
47%79th
pass rate, standard downs
41%78th
39%90th
pass rate, 1st down
37%106th
34%116th
no-huddle share
28%104th
92%19th
pass rate, red zone
38%68th
29%112th
pass rate, passing downs
65%59th
63%70th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.167th
27.398th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
OU offence
OU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.045
255
129 of 138
success rate
0.392
255
113 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.112
255
123 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.260
255
137 of 138
rush: success rate
0.362
255
125 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.542
255
138 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.293
255
58 of 138
pass: success rate
0.431
255
75 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.714
255
31 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.432
255
123 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.304
255
77 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.603
255
126 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.223
255
124 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.462
255
136 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.389
255
102 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
255
89 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.118
255
123 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.039
255
33 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.400
255
42 of 138
MIZ offence
MIZ offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.199
280
60 of 138
success rate
0.436
280
75 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.238
280
64 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.042
280
98 of 138
rush: success rate
0.400
280
104 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.768
280
121 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.459
280
23 of 138
pass: success rate
0.472
280
49 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.672
280
38 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.484
280
79 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.330
280
57 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.099
280
71 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.172
280
76 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.692
280
96 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.722
280
80 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.168
280
106 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.086
280
68 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.082
280
128 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
61.500
280
137 of 138
OU defence
OU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.182
227
2 of 138
success rate
0.304
227
6 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.235
227
74 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.104
227
27 of 138
rush: success rate
0.287
227
10 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.171
227
129 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.162
227
4 of 138
pass: success rate
0.337
227
22 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.322
227
16 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.333
227
4 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.247
227
37 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.364
227
20 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.194
227
70 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.583
227
21 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.083
227
8 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.216
227
128 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.145
227
128 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.070
227
96 of 138
opponent average starting field position
66.100
227
5 of 138
MIZ defence
MIZ defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.004
271
48 of 138
success rate
0.354
271
36 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.412
271
126 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.002
271
58 of 138
rush: success rate
0.363
271
41 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.074
271
111 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.071
271
53 of 138
pass: success rate
0.351
271
27 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.696
271
109 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.400
271
30 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.283
271
73 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.481
271
28 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.244
271
117 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.867
271
126 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.263
271
62 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.221
271
130 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.133
271
118 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.089
271
126 of 138
opponent average starting field position
76.200
271
130 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs