Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). LSU wins about 89% of the time at a number like ours.
LSU
Games
4
Plays per game
79.5
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
21.3 (10th, offence 22nd, defence 4th)
Returning production
21% (pass 13%, rush 40%, receiving 20%)
ARK
Games
4
Plays per game
76.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-0.3 (70th, offence 59th, defence 90th)
Returning production
14% (pass 19%, rush 14%, receiving 12%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
LSU
ARK
pass rate, all downs
44%101st
58%8th
pass rate, standard downs
39%87th
47%27th
no-huddle share
86%28th
88%26th
pass rate, 1st down
45%54th
51%20th
pass rate, passing downs
56%105th
77%11th
pass rate, red zone
35%86th
38%71st
seconds per play (own drives)
26.4115th
28.776th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
LSU offence
LSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.236
318
48 of 138
success rate
0.478
318
40 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.282
318
47 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.174
318
49 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
318
61 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.958
318
73 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.345
318
47 of 138
pass: success rate
0.489
318
35 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.718
318
30 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.509
318
51 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.398
318
18 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.052
318
79 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.148
318
44 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.720
318
86 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.061
318
61 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.167
318
103 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.088
318
71 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.079
318
124 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.400
318
128 of 138
ARK offence
ARK offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.049
306
109 of 138
success rate
0.422
306
90 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.118
306
120 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.075
306
125 of 138
rush: success rate
0.386
306
116 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.566
306
137 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.181
306
86 of 138
pass: success rate
0.450
306
59 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.460
306
95 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.485
306
77 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
306
69 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.579
306
127 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.181
306
87 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
306
17 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.500
306
93 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.180
306
122 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.092
306
80 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.088
306
135 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.200
306
57 of 138
LSU defence
LSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.166
241
4 of 138
success rate
0.303
241
5 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.184
241
53 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.155
241
16 of 138
rush: success rate
0.330
241
28 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.727
241
20 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.180
241
2 of 138
pass: success rate
0.281
241
4 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.563
241
74 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.354
241
7 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.227
241
24 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.200
241
9 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.240
241
113 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
241
100 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.857
241
104 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.224
241
131 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.154
241
130 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.071
241
98 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.300
241
110 of 138
ARK defence
ARK defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.158
229
106 of 138
success rate
0.432
229
99 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.110
229
28 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.193
229
126 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
229
113 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.906
229
68 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.160
229
77 of 138
pass: success rate
0.418
229
86 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.363
229
23 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.527
229
129 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.188
229
5 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.226
229
117 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.150
229
24 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.875
229
128 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.143
229
135 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.144
229
41 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.096
229
63 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.048
229
36 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.800
229
31 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs