Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). FLA wins about 57% of the time at a number like ours.
VAN
Games
4
Plays per game
68.0
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
7.5 (48th, offence 46th, defence 45th)
Returning production
35% (pass 9%, rush 50%, receiving 50%)
FLA
Games
4
Plays per game
71.2
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
18.5 (12th, offence 9th, defence 31st)
Returning production
69% (pass 94%, rush 89%, receiving 52%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
VAN
FLA
pass rate, all downs
50%54th
38%126th
pass rate, standard downs
43%57th
30%131st
pass rate, 1st down
49%31st
30%127th
no-huddle share
51%82nd
58%75th
pass rate, red zone
39%67th
23%124th
pass rate, passing downs
68%50th
62%78th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.950th
31.122nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
VAN offence
VAN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.082
272
101 of 138
success rate
0.415
272
98 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.180
272
93 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.161
272
52 of 138
rush: success rate
0.421
272
93 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.058
272
34 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.202
272
81 of 138
pass: success rate
0.449
272
64 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.301
272
127 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.479
272
85 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.263
272
110 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.050
272
81 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.150
272
48 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.773
272
55 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.120
272
116 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.129
272
48 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
272
66 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.044
272
49 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.800
272
84 of 138
FLA offence
FLA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.413
285
7 of 138
success rate
0.516
285
10 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.302
285
37 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.341
285
6 of 138
rush: success rate
0.480
285
40 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.133
285
15 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.599
285
8 of 138
pass: success rate
0.585
285
5 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.557
285
68 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.571
285
11 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.356
285
43 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.232
285
53 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.133
285
29 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
1.000
285
1 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.548
285
2 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.091
285
10 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.053
285
14 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.039
285
31 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.400
285
114 of 138
VAN defence
VAN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.039
254
34 of 138
success rate
0.350
254
30 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.336
254
107 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.019
254
49 of 138
rush: success rate
0.383
254
55 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.022
254
97 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.011
254
32 of 138
pass: success rate
0.336
254
20 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.671
254
104 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.421
254
48 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.245
254
35 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.539
254
34 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.200
254
78 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.789
254
105 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.905
254
43 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.185
254
106 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.110
254
91 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.075
254
104 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.100
254
120 of 138
FLA defence
FLA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.036
289
36 of 138
success rate
0.405
289
77 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.146
289
41 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.063
289
35 of 138
rush: success rate
0.391
289
60 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.880
289
57 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.116
289
65 of 138
pass: success rate
0.429
289
98 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.305
289
15 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.443
289
63 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.314
289
99 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.046
289
102 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.109
289
2 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.722
289
71 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.045
289
115 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.204
289
120 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.114
289
96 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.090
289
127 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.200
289
93 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs