Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TENN wins about 67% of the time at a number like ours.
UK
Games
4
Plays per game
63.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
8.0 (44th, offence 40th, defence 47th)
Returning production
19% (pass -3%, rush -9%, receiving 35%)
TENN
Games
4
Plays per game
71.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
17.7 (14th, offence 14th, defence 26th)
Returning production
35% (pass 7%, rush 48%, receiving 52%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UK
TENN
pass rate, all downs
45%97th
42%114th
pass rate, standard downs
42%68th
41%79th
pass rate, 1st down
39%96th
41%88th
no-huddle share
14%117th
83%40th
pass rate, red zone
33%96th
31%103rd
pass rate, passing downs
56%109th
45%134th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.535th
27.495th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UK offence
UK offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.236
252
47 of 138
success rate
0.516
252
12 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.203
252
84 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.209
252
37 of 138
rush: success rate
0.548
252
7 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.948
252
75 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.267
252
66 of 138
pass: success rate
0.463
252
53 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.584
252
60 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.571
252
12 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.321
252
66 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.460
252
25 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.156
252
56 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.765
252
57 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.875
252
20 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.135
252
61 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.091
252
77 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.044
252
47 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.100
252
96 of 138
TENN offence
TENN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.224
287
52 of 138
success rate
0.456
287
54 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.208
287
78 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.311
287
12 of 138
rush: success rate
0.485
287
37 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.113
287
20 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.172
287
90 of 138
pass: success rate
0.431
287
76 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.361
287
119 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.517
287
45 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.300
287
84 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.540
287
16 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.138
287
36 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
287
24 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.308
287
5 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.143
287
73 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.101
287
101 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
287
41 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.600
287
67 of 138
UK defence
UK defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.016
290
57 of 138
success rate
0.417
290
88 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.190
290
55 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.141
290
113 of 138
rush: success rate
0.432
290
93 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.077
290
114 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.037
290
20 of 138
pass: success rate
0.418
290
87 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.287
290
11 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.448
290
69 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.348
290
121 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.806
290
65 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.168
290
35 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
290
99 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.577
290
82 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
290
100 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.083
290
43 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.100
290
134 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.900
290
24 of 138
TENN defence
TENN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.086
257
22 of 138
success rate
0.358
257
39 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.064
257
18 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.081
257
90 of 138
rush: success rate
0.365
257
42 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.026
257
99 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.144
257
6 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
257
55 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.095
257
1 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.406
257
34 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.272
257
58 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.031
257
99 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.191
257
64 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
257
88 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.227
257
11 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.218
257
129 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.148
257
129 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.070
257
97 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.200
257
73 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs